不同降水驱动的SWAT模型参数不确定性研究  

Study on parameter uncertainty in SWAT model driven by different precipitation

作　　者：肖渝 孙若辰 王倩[4] 段青云 XIAO Yu;SUN Ruochen;WANG Qian;DUAN Qingyun(The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Institute of Water Science and Technology,Hohai University,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,江苏南京210098 [4]河海大学水科学研究院,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期43-52,共10页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3201102);国家自然科学基金项目(42101046,51979004);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022001);河海大学引进高层次人才科研启动基金项目(522020012)。

摘　　要：以抚河流域与黑河流域为研究区,应用4种降水产品(CMORPH CMA、CMFD、CMADS、MSWEP)驱动SWAT模型模拟日流量,评估4种降水产品在湿润区与干旱区的适用性;使用自适应降维评估法选出流域的敏感参数,并进行一致性检验。结果表明:抚河流域4种降水产品的纳什效率系数(NSE)均在0.70以上,其中CMORPH CMA和CMADS的NSE均能达到0.82;黑河流域CMORPH CMA和CMADS的NSE大于等于0.76,而CMFD和MSWEP的NSE分别为0.72和0.74。抚河流域4种降水产品具有相同的敏感参数;黑河流域CMORPH CMA和CMADS有相同的6个敏感参数,而CMFD和MSWEP则分别有5个和8个敏感参数。4种降水产品在湿润流域和干旱流域都能得到较好的应用效果,但是CMORPH CMA和CMADS的模拟效果要优于CMFD和MSWEP。不同的降水输入也会对模型参数敏感性分析的结果产生影响,当降水表现越接近时,所筛选的敏感性参数也越相似。By taking the Fuhe Basin and Heihe Basin as studying areas,this study employs the SWAT model driven by four distinct precipitation products(CMORPH CMA,CMFD,CMADS,MSWEP)to simulate the daily flow and evaluate the hydrological performance of these products in both humid and arid regions.Meanwhile,the sensitive parameters of watershed were selected by the adaptive method for factor fixing and subsequently the consistency check was performed to ensure their reliability.The results indicate that all four precipitation products achieved NSE values above 0.7,with CMORPH CMA and CMADS outperforming the rest by achieving 0.82 in the Fuhe Basin,while in the Heihe Basin,they scored 0.76,compared to CMFD and MSWEP which scored 0.72 and 0.74,respectively.Moreover,in the Fuhe Basin,all four precipitation products share the same sensitive parameters,but in the Heihe Basin,CMORPH CMA and CMADS have six shared sensitive parameters,while CMFD and MSWEP have five and eight sensitive parameters,respectively.These findings suggest that all four precipitation products can be successfully applied in both humid and arid basins,but the simulation performance of CMORPH CMA and CMADS is superior to that of CMFD and MSWEP.Additionally,the similarity of precipitation performance will enhance the similarity of selected sensitivity parameters during the model analysis.

关 键 词：降水输入 自适应降维评估法 参数敏感性分析 SWAT模型 抚河流域 黑河流域 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]