低碳城市试点政策能够促进城市低碳发展吗?  

Can Low-carbon City Pilot Policy Promote Urban Low-carbon Development?

作　　者：郭丰 任毅[1] Guo Feng;Ren Yi(Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆400067

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2024年第3期26-37,共12页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“双循环格局下高技术产业链空间布局优化与韧性提升的实现路径研究”(23BJY057);重庆市社会科学规划英才计划项目“成渝地区双城经济圈融入双循环价值链的机制与路径研究”(2022YC016)。

摘　　要：低碳试点城市作为探索绿色低碳转型发展的示范城市,在推动城市绿色低碳发展和实现碳达峰、碳中和目标中发挥着重要作用。以低碳城市试点政策为准自然实验,基于中国2006—2019年221个城市的面板数据,利用渐进双重差分模型考察了低碳城市试点政策对城市碳排放的影响。研究结果表明,低碳城市试点政策显著降低了城市碳排放量,这一结论经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、倾向得分匹配方法等稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,低碳城市试点政策通过促进城市产业结构升级和提升城市绿色技术创新水平降低了城市碳排放。异质性分析发现,低碳城市试点政策显著降低了东部地区、非资源型城市和高政府治理城市的碳排放。文章的研究结论为充分发挥低碳城市试点政策的碳减排效应,进而助力碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现提供了政策启示和实践参考。As demonstration cities for exploring green development and low-carbon transformation,low-carbon pilot cities play an important role in promoting urban green and low-carbon development and achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.Take the low-carbon city pilot policy as the quasi-natural experiment,based on the panel data of 221 cities in China from 2006 to 2019,this paper investigates the impact of low-carbon city pilot policy on urban carbon emissions using the progressive double difference model.The results show that the low-carbon city pilot policy significantly reduces urban carbon emissions,and this conclusion is still valid after the robustness test of parallel trend test,placebo test,and propensity score matching method.The mechanism analysis shows that the low-carbon city pilot policy reduces urban carbon emissions by promoting the upgrading of urban industrial structure and improving the level of urban green technology innovation.Heterogeneity analysis found that the low-carbon city pilot policy significantly reduces carbon emissions in the eastern region,non-resource-based cities and high government governance cities.The research conclusions of this paper provide policy enlightenment and practical reference for giving full play to the carbon emission reduction effect of low-carbon city pilot policy and helping to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak.

关 键 词：低碳城市 碳排放 产业结构升级 绿色技术创新 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]