长江流域极端降水特征时空变化分析  

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：艾家棋 张海荣 顾学志 辛谦 曹辉[1] 鲍正风[1] 叶磊[2] AI Jiaqi;ZHANG Hairong;GU Xuezhi;XIN Qian;CAO Hui;BAO Zhengfeng;YE Lei(China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443133,China;School of Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北宜昌443133 [2]大连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连116000

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第3期39-47,共9页Pearl River

基　　金：水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022004)。

摘　　要：基于长江流域224个气象站点1960—2018共59 a的日降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall(M-K)趋势检验、线性拟合方法分析长江流域极端降水时间变化特点;确定长江流域最适用于广义极值分布(Generalized Extreme Value Distribution, GEV)参数估计的方法,分析GEV尾部特征,解析长江流域极端降水空间特征。结果表明:(1)长江流域的极端降水总体上呈上升趋势,呈上升趋势地区主要是长江中下游区域,极端降水量增长速率最快的站点主要分布在长江下游,长江中下游流域极端降水量可能在未来会进一步增长,暴雨洪水发生频率可能会提高;(2)L-Moment方法更适用于估计GEV分布参数,对于降水量较大的极端降水序列,L-Moment的稳定性更高,极端降水极值序列分布为Fréchet的站点占比约为70%,表明长江流域大部分站点极端降水极值分布厚尾特征明显,极端降水量波动较大;(3)长江流域极端降水在不同重现期水平下呈现出明显的空间分布差异,不同极端降水序列的极端降水量均呈现出从上游到下游逐渐递增的趋势,长江中下游极端降水量增速快,波动大,不同重现期降水量更大。因此,长江中下游的防洪能力需要进一步加强。Based on the daily precipitation data of 224 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin for a total of 59 years from 1960 to 2018,the Mann-Kendall trend test(M-K)and linear fitting method are used to analyze the temporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin.The most applicable method for the parameter estimation of generalized extreme value distribution(GEV)in the Yangtze River Basin is determined,and the GEV tail characteristics are analyzed,so as to resolve the spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin.The results show that①the extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin is generally on an upward trend,and the areas with upward-trending extreme precipitation are mainly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The stations with the fastest growth rates of extreme precipitation levels are mainly distributed in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and the extreme precipitation levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin may further increase in the future.In addition,the frequency of heavy rainfall and flooding may increase;②the L-Moment method is more suitable for the estimation of the GEV distribution parameters and is more stable for extreme precipitation series with larger precipitation levels.The proportion of stations with extreme precipitation series distribution of Fréchet is about 70%,indicating that most stations in the Yangtze River Basin have obvious thick tail characteristics of extreme precipitation distribution,and the extreme precipitation level fluctuates greatly.③Extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin under different return periods shows obvious spatial distribution differences,and the extreme precipitation levels of different extreme precipitation series all show a gradual increasing trend from upstream to downstream.The extreme precipitation levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have a fast growth rate,large fluctuations,and high preci

关 键 词：极端降水指数 极端降水 参数估计 长江流域 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]