塔里木河流域水资源生态承载力动态评价与预测  

Dynamic Evaluation and Prediction of Ecological Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Tarim River Basin

作　　者：朱雪颖 黄生志[1] 黄强[1] 郑旭东 张绍庆 高月娇 ZHU Xueying;HUANG Shengzhi;HUANG Qiang;ZHENG Xudong;ZHANG Shaoqing;GAO Yuejiao(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi an University of Technology,Xi an 710048,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第3期79-88,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发专项(2022B03024-4);国家自然科学基金面上项目(52279026)。

摘　　要：采用水资源生态足迹模型,评估了塔里木河流域(简称为塔河流域)2005—2020年人均水资源生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈亏以及生态承载状况的演变过程,并运用灰色预测模型对2021—2030年的生态盈余/赤字进行预测。结果表明:2005—2020年塔河流域水资源整体上处于生态赤字状态;多数区域水资源生态压力指数大于1.0,生态状况超载严重,万元GDP水资源生态足迹持续下降,而水资源负载指数均呈上升趋势;未来塔河流域水资源赤字状态呈现逐年下降趋势。研究成果能够有效服务于塔河流域生态环境保护和水资源规划与管理。An ecological footprint model of water resources is used to evaluate the the evolution of per capita ecological footprint of water resources,ecological carrying capacity,ecological profit and loss,and ecological carrying status from 2005 to 2020 in the Tarim River Basin,and a gray prediction model is used to forecast the ecological surplus/deficit from 2021 to 2030.The results indicate that the water resources in the Tarim River Basin as a whole are in a state of ecological deficit,and the ecological pressure index of water resources in most regions is greater than 1.0.Ecological overload is serious;the ecological footprint of water resources per 10000 yuan GDP continues to decline,while the load index of water resources is on the rise.In the future,the deficit of water resources in the Tahe River Basin will show a downward trend year by year.The research results can effectively serve the ecological environment protection and planning and management of water resources in the Tahe River Basin.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态承载力 生态赤字 灰色预测模型 塔里木河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]