基于熵权-TOPSIS模型的广东省水资源承载力评价  

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Guangdong Province Based on Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Model

作　　者：张义敏 陈畅 陈友林 ZHANG Yimin;CHEN Chang;CHEN Youlin(Pearl River Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Center,Guangzhou 510610,China;Guangdong Zhongshui Survey Planning&Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510507,China)

机构地区：[1]珠江水文水资源勘测中心,广州510610 [2]广东中水勘测规划设计研究有限公司,广州510507

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2024年第3期89-94,共6页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

摘　　要：为研究经济发展与水资源协调关系,结合广东省入境水量大于本地水资源量的特点,构建考虑入境水量的“水资源-社会经济-生态环境”三大系统的水资源承载力评价指标体系,运用熵权法和TOPSIS模型对2012—2021年广东省水资源承载力进行评价。结果表明:考虑入境水量后的水资源承载力评价指标体系中,水资源系统对水资源承载力影响较小,社会经济系统对其影响较大。2012—2021年广东省水资源承载力贴近度的平均值为0.356,承载力评价属于超载状态;水资源承载力呈先下降后上升的趋势,2014年贴近度最低,2021年贴近度最高,水资源承载力等级从超载逐渐提升至弱承载状态,全省加强水资源管理,用水效率逐步提高,水资源承载力显著提升。Combining the characteristics of the inflow of water in the southern coastal area is greater than the local water resources,construct the water resource carrying capacity evaluation index system of the three systems of“water resources-social economy-ecological environment”in Guangdong Province after considering the inflow of water,using the entropy weight method and TOPSIS model Evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Guangdong Province from 2012 to 2021.The results show that:In the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity after considering the inflow of water in the southern coastal areas,the water resources system has little influence on the water resources carrying capacity,while the socio-economic system has a greater impact on it.From 2012 to 2021,the average closeness degree of water resources carrying capacity in Guangdong Province was 0.356,and the evaluation of carrying capacity was in an overloaded state;the water resources carrying capacity showed a trend of first decreasing and then rising,with the lowest closeness degree in 2014 and the highest closeness degree in 2021.The level of resource carrying capacity has gradually increased from overload to weak carrying capacity,the province has strengthened water resource management,water use efficiency has gradually improved,and water resource carrying capacity has developed in a positive direction.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 入境水量 熵权法 TOPSIS模型 广东省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]