基于序列预测法的海上平台中长期电力负荷规划  

Planning of medium and long-term power load for offshore platforms based on sequence prediction method

作　　者：封园 FENG Yuan(Bohai Research Institute of Tianjin Company,CNOOC)

机构地区：[1]中海石油(中国)有限公司天津分公司渤海石油研究院,300459

出　　处：《石油石化节能与计量》2024年第3期48-52,共5页Energy Conservation and Measurement in Petroleum & Petrochemical Industry

摘　　要：海上平台电力负荷设计时需要对后续开发逐年用电负荷进行规划,而负荷预测的精确性直接关系到电力系统是否能够经济、可靠、安全的稳定运行,因此制定科学合理的负荷规划对海上平台电网建设有重要的意义。以某海上平台为例,采用优化系数法将A油田应急负荷由1195.6 kW优化至849.4 kW,应急电站规模由1500 kW降低至1000 kW,节约直接经济投资100万元。通过分析油田注水量与设计负荷之间的关系,采用序列预测法对B油田中长期用电负荷进行了规划,并与油田投产后的实际负荷数据进行了对比,根据分析结果可知,预测后的负荷误差波动均值为6.62%,远低于常规对中长期负荷预测误差10%的要求,极大地提高了电网负荷估算的精确度,不仅降低了平台发电及运行成本,还提高了油田建设的经济效益。While designing the power load for offshore platforms,it is necessary to plan the annual power load for subsequent development.However,The accuracy of load forecasting is directly related to whether the power system can operate stably economically,reliably safely.Therefore,formulating scientific and reasonable load planning is of great significance for the construction of offshore platform power grids.This article takes a certain offshore platform as an example.The optimization coefficient method was adopted to optimize the emergency load of A oilfield from 1195.6 kW to 849.4 kW,and the scale of the emergency power station was reduced from 1500 kW to 1000 kW,saving the direct economic investment of 1 million yuan.By analyzing the relationship between the oilfield water volume and the design load,the medium and long term power load of B oilfield is planned by sequence prediction method,and comparing it with the actual load data after the oilfield is put into operation.According to the analysis results,the average value of load error fluctuation after forecasting is 6.62%,far below the conventional requirement of 10%error in medium and long-term load forecasting,it greatly improves the accuracy of power grid load estimation.It's not only reduces the platform power generation and operation cost,but also improves the economic benefits of oilfield construction.

关 键 词：序列预测法 优化系数法 电网建设 负荷规划 误差波动 

分 类 号：TE54[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]