日本房地产泡沫对我国房地产业发展的镜鉴  

How Lessons Learned From Japan's Real Estate Bubble Inform Chinese Real Estate Industry Development

作　　者：尹中立[1] 张江涛 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所,北京100010 [2]国寿投资保险管理有限公司,北京100032

出　　处：《中国房地产金融》2024年第1期10-17,共8页China Real Estate Finance

摘　　要：2021年以来我国的房地产市场供求关系已经出现根本变化,房地产市场的交易量和价格均出现明显回落。如何应对房地产市场的风险是当前我国宏观经济面临的重大挑战。环顾全球经济发展历史,日本应对房地产泡沫风险的经验和教训最值得我们借鉴。日本政府应对措施存在重大失误,耽误了政策救助的最佳时机,叠加经济基本面和人口的长期走弱,造成了私人部门长期的资产“负债表型衰退”,导致日本在房地产危机后经济长期低迷。我们要认真吸取日本的教训,尽量避免出现房地产市场泡沫破裂而导致的系统性风险,提前采取有力措施,防范化解房地产企业流动性风险等。要增强经济的自主性,减少对外部经济的依赖;要持续优化经济结构,推动产业转型升级,降低对房地产业的依赖,推动符合未来时代需求的高科技等产业发展。Since 2021,the supply and demand relationship in China's real estate market has undergone fundamental changes,with significant declines in transaction volume and prices.It is a major challenge to deal with the risks in the real estate market facing China's macroeconomic situation.Looking at the history of global economic development,Japan's experience and lessons in dealing with the risks of real estate bubbles are worth learning.The Japanese government's response measures have made big mistakes,delaying the best time for policy assistance,coupled with long-term economic fundamentals and population weakness,resulting in a long-term decline in the private sector's asset liability phenotype,leading to a long-term downturn in the Japanese economy after the real estate crisis.We should carefully learn from Japan's lessons,try to avoid systematic risks caused by the bursting of the real estate market bubble,take effective measures in advance,and prevent and resolve liquidity risks of real estate enterprises.We should try to enhance economic autonomy and reduce dependence on external economy;to continuously optimize the economic structure,promote industrial transformation and upgrading,reduce dependence on the real estate industry,and promote the development of high-tech and other industries that meet the needs of the future era.

关 键 词：房地产泡沫 资产负债表型衰退 化解风险 产业结构升级 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]