融资风险影响下的项目组合决策问题  

Project portfolio decision under the influence of financing risk

作　　者：沈种 李星梅[1,2] 赵秋红 Shen Zhong;Li Xingmei;Zhao Qiuhong(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development(North China Electric Power University),Beijing 102206,China;School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京102206 [3]北京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2024年第1期146-160,共15页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71772060).

摘　　要：针对现有项目组合决策问题研究中考虑的风险因素均从项目出发,却忽略了企业在选择上游投资方进行融资过程中产生的风险这一问题,从局部与整体两个角度考虑,提出融资风险量化公式,构建融资风险影响下的项目组合决策模型.研究表明,不考虑融资安排的项目组合决策结果具有极大的融资风险;对于能为组合贡献较多收益的“大项目”,企业应拓宽其融资渠道,降低个别投资商资金流断裂对项目组合的整体性影响;对于能够带来较少收益的“小项目”,则可以牺牲部分项目收益,以能够提供稳定资金的投资商为首选,降低项目组合融资风险.Most existing research on project portfolio decision-making only consider risk factors based on the project,but ignore the risks in the process of selecting upstream investors for financing.This paper proposes a quantitative formula to measure financing risk from both the local and overall perspectives,and constructs a project portfolio decision-making model considering the influence of financing risk.The results show that the decision results of project portfolio without considering financing arrangements have great financing risks.The financing channels for big projects that can contribute more income to the portfolio should be broadened and the impact of an individual investor’s capital flow break on the overall project portfolio should be reduced.For small projects which can bring less income,investors who can provide stable funds should be selected in order to reduce the financing risk of the project portfolio,even though project income may be sacrificed to some extent.

关 键 词：项目组合 项目组合决策 融资风险 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]