广东省“十四五”时期细颗粒物污染控制达标路径研究  

Research on the standard reaching path ofResearch on the standard reaching path of PM_(2.5)pollution control in Guangdong Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period pollution control in Guangdong Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period

作　　者：李聪 李代超[1,2] 刘雪冰 梁建琴 谢晓苇 许芳年 曾展 LI Cong;LI Daichao;LIU Xuebing;LIANG Jianqin;XIE Xiaowei;XU Fangnian;ZENG Zhan(Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining&Information Sharing of Ministry of Education,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350002;The Academy of Digital China(Fujian),Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350002;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Hunan Map Publishing House,Changsha Hunan 410007)

机构地区：[1]福州大学空间数据挖掘与信息共享教育部重点实验室,福建福州350002 [2]福州大学数字中国研究院(福建),福建福州350002 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [5]湖南地图出版社,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2024年第3期422-429,共8页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(No.XDA23100502)。

摘　　要：针对广东省细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))污染问题,找到一条实现PM_(2.5)污染控制达标的路径对于广东省各级政府制定相关政策有着重要意义。首先利用广东省各地级市2010—2019年PM_(2.5)和社会经济指标数据构建了PM_(2.5)预测模型,然后面向2025年PM_(2.5)污染控制达标,利用各地级市2019年的社会经济指标数据构建了顾及城市发展特征的差异化的城市PM_(2.5)污染治理情景,最后使用PM_(2.5)预测模型进行情景预测,从而得到广东省“十四五”时期PM_(2.5)污染控制达标路径。结果显示,到2025年,广东省21个地级市PM_(2.5)年均质量浓度都能达到22μg/m^(3)以下,实现《广东省生态环境保护“十四五”规划》的预期目标。基于达标路径,还提出了“十四五”时期各地级市PM_(2.5)污染治理的政策建议。In view of the PM_(2.5)pollution problem in Guangdong Province,it is important to find a path to achieve PM_(2.5)pollution control to meet the standards for governments at all levels when making policies.Firstly,a PM_(2.5)prediction model was constructed based on PM_(2.5)and socio-economic indicator data from 2010 to 2019 for each prefecture-level city in Guangdong Province.Then after taking city development characteristics into account,a differentiated urban PM_(2.5)pollution control scenario was constructed using 2019 socio-economic indicator data for each prefecture-level city to achieve PM_(2.5)pollution control in 2025.Finally,the scenarios were simulated using the prediction model,and the standard reaching path of PM_(2.5)pollution control in Guangdong Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period was obtained.As a result,by 2025,the annual average PM_(2.5)mass concentration of 21 prefecture-level cities would all be lower than 22μg/m^(3),which met the expected goal of“The 14th Five-Year Plan for Ecological Protection in Guangdong Province”.Based on the path,the control policy recommendations for PM_(2.5)management in the 14th Five-Year Plan period were also given.

关 键 词：细颗粒物 广东省 达标路径 “十四五” 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]