人口老龄化与外商直接投资:影响机制与实证分析——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究  

Impact Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of Population Aging and Foreign Direct Investment:Empirical Study Based on China Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：徐洁香[1] 邴恩光 XU Jiexiang;BING Enguang(School of International Economics and Trade,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2024年第2期50-64,95,共16页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目“公共福利支出、人口老龄化与贸易高质量发展”(AHSKY2021D134);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目“人口老龄化与外商直接投资:影响机制与实证分析”(ACYC2022367)。

摘　　要：基于2003—2020年中国省级面板数据,将储蓄率和劳动力成本纳入同一分析框架,从理论和实证两个层面探究人口老龄化对外商直接投资流入的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明,人口老龄化与外商直接投资流入存在显著的倒U形关系,且存在时空异质性:空间异质性,表现为老龄化对外商直接投资流入的影响呈现东、中、西部逐渐下降趋势;时间异质性,表现为2012—2020年人口老龄化对外商直接投资的影响程度明显高于2003—2011年。储蓄率在人口老龄化影响外商直接投资流入的过程中表现出正向调节效应,起到推动作用,而劳动力成本起到部分中介效应,且劳动力成本对外商直接投资流入的影响力随着老龄化的持续加剧而扩大,阻碍了外商直接投资的流入。为此,各级政府要完善劳动权益保障体系,加大人力资本投入力度,制定完善的外资引入机制,引导外商直接投资区域均衡发展。Based on China provincial panel data from 2003 to 2020 and by incorporating savings rate and labor cost into the same analytical framework,this study explores the impact and mechanism of population aging on foreign direct investment inflow from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.The research results indicate that there exists a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between population aging and foreign direct investment inflow,and there also exists the following spatio-temporal heterogeneity:spatial heterogeneity manifested as the impact of population aging on foreign direct investment inflow gradually decreasing from the eastern,central to western regions,and time heterogeneity manifested as the impact degree of population aging on foreign direct investment from 2012 to 2020 being significantly higher than that from 2003 to 2011.The savings rate exhibits a positive moderating effect in the process of population aging affecting foreign direct investment inflow and plays a driving role,while labor cost plays a partial mediating effect and its influence on foreign direct investment inflow expands with the continuous intensification of aging,hindering the inflow of foreign direct investment.Therefore,governments at all levels should perfect labor right protection system,increase the investment in human capital,formulate sound mechanisms for foreign investment introduction,and guide the balanced development in foreign direct investment regions.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 外商直接投资 储蓄率 劳动力成本 中介效应 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] C924.24[社会学—人口学]