海南省2015—2021年乙型肝炎流行病学特征分析及趋势预测  

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of hepatitis B in Hainan Province,2015-2021

作　　者：符振旺[1] 范世恒 李卫霞[2] FU Zhenwang;FAN Shiheng;LI Weixia(Institute of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,Hainan Center for Disease Control&Prevention,Haikou,Hainan 570203,China;International School of Public Health and One Health,Hainan Medical University,Haikou,Hainan 571199,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,海南海口570203 [2]海南医学院公共卫生与全健康国际学院,海南海口571199

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2024年第2期143-149,共7页China Tropical Medicine

基　　金：海南省重点研发计划项目(No.ZDYF2021GXJS018);中国乙肝防控科研基金课题项目(No.YGFK20200090)。

摘　　要：目的分析海南省2015—2021年乙型肝炎(简称“乙肝”)的流行病学特征,预测不同人群乙肝发病趋势,基于流行特征及预测结果为乙肝防治工作提供科学依据。方法对海南省乙肝发病的流行病学特征进行描述性分析,基于灰色预测模型及多项式模型研究海南不同人群乙肝报告发病率规律,采用平均相对误差绝对值最小原则选择最佳模型,并预测未来发病率。结果海南省2015—2019年乙肝报告发病率呈逐年上升的趋势,2020年起出现了下降趋势,2017—2021年报告发病率在0~<15岁和15~<30岁年龄组均呈现下降趋势,60~<75岁和≥75岁年龄组发病率基本趋于平稳。30~<45岁和45~<60岁人群年均发病数、每年发病率均较高。乙肝年均报告发病率男女性别比约为2∶1。各职业中乙肝发病数以农民为主且年均占比为43.06%。乙肝报告年发病数存在地区差异性分布,其中5个市县逐年下降、1个市县先上升后下降,2个市县保持稳定,其他市县存在逐年上升的趋势。2022—2024年的发病率预测值分别为127.43/10万、116.05/10万和102.09/10万。结论近年来,海南省30岁以下人群的乙肝发病呈现了递减趋势,说明海南乙肝疫苗纳入儿童免疫规划等防控策略产生较好效果,需要重点加强对高发病率年龄组及高发性别的防治工作。不同地区乙肝发病存在差异,提示要继续加强存在逐年递增趋势地区的乙肝防控知识健康宣讲、筛查治疗和疫苗免疫接种等综合防控措施。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Hainan from 2015 to 2021,and to predict the incidence trends among different populations,so as to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis B based on the epidemiological characteristics and prediction.Methods Descriptive epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Hainan were analyzed,and the incidence of hepatitis B among different populations in Hainan was studied based on the grey prediction model and polynomial model.The optimal model was selected by the principle of least absolute mean relative error,and future incidences were predicted.Results The reported incidence of hepatitis B in Hainan Province from 2015 to 2019 basically showed an annual upward trend,but a decreasing trend was observed in 2020.From 2017 to 2021,the reported incidence rates in the age groups of 0-<15 and 15-<30 showed a declining trend,while the incidence of the age groups of 60-<75 and≥75 years old basically stabilized in Hainan.The annual average number and annual incidence of the population aged 30-<45 and 45-<60 were both higher.The male-to-female sex ratio of the annual average reported incidence of hepatitis B was approximately 2:1.Among the various occupations,the incidence was mainly among farmers,with an annual average proportion of hepatitis B of 43.06%.Regional disparities in the number of reported annual hepatitis B cases were found,with 5 cities decreasing year by year,1 city increasing first and then decreasing,2 cities being stable and other cities increasing year by year.The predicted incidence rates for 2022-2024 years were 127.43/100000,116.05/100000,and 102.09/100000,respectively.Conclusions In recent years,the incidence of hepatitis B among people under 30 years old in Hainan Province has shown a decreasing trend,indicating that policies such as hepatitis B vaccine included in the immunization program for children in Hainan have a good effect on the prevention and control of hepatitis B.Therefore,it is ne

关 键 词：乙型肝炎 海南省 流行病学特征 多项式模型 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：R512.62[医药卫生—内科学]