基于四维度模型的湖南省湘江流域洪涝灾害风险评估  

Assessment of flood disaster risk based on a four-dimensional model in Hunan section of the Xiangjiang River Basin

作　　者：杨柳[1,2,3] 冯畅 郭哿 彭璐璐 项瑾 YANG Liu;FENG Chang;GUO Ge;PENG Lulu;XIANG Jin(College of Geography and Tourism,Hengyang Normal University,Hengyang 421002,China;Hunan Environmental Education and Sustainable Development Research Base,Hengyang 421002,China;Cooperative Innovation Centre for Digitalization of Cultural Heritage in Ancient Villages and Towns,Hengyang 421002,China;Nanchang Railway Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang 330002,China)

机构地区：[1]衡阳师范学院地理与旅游学院,湖南衡阳421002 [2]湖南省环境教育与可持续发展研究基地,湖南衡阳421002 [3]古村古镇文化遗产数字化传承协同创新中心,湖南衡阳421002 [4]南昌铁路勘测设计院有限责任公司,江西南昌330002

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2024年第1期26-36,共11页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41901026、42001024);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2022JJ40015、2021JJ40011);湖南省教育厅科学研究项目青年项目(21B0625、21B0646);湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX20221271)。

摘　　要：当前极端气候事件频发,降水频次与强度剧增,致使区域洪涝风险提高。为了降低区域洪涝风险,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力四维度分析洪涝灾害风险的形成机理,基于11项指标,综合运用ArcGIS地理信息软件与熵权法等数理统计方法客观赋权,对湖南省湘江流域的洪涝风险进行综合性评估,最终制作出区县尺度的洪涝风险分布图。结果表明:湘江流域中西部致灾因子危险性低,中游地区孕灾环境敏感性高;环长株潭地区与衡阳市的承灾体脆弱性较高,但前者凭借良好的经济基础,其防灾减灾能力相对较强;湘江流域洪涝风险分布从东北向西南呈增强趋势,高洪涝风险区位于长沙市、益阳市、衡阳市及永州市南部,不同地区洪涝风险的主导因子不同。研究结果较好地反映了多因子作用下地区洪涝风险的差异,可为区域防洪减灾提供支撑。The frequent recurrence of climatic extreme events and the sharp increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation have increased the risk of coastal flooding.To reduce regional flood risks,we analyzed the formation mechanism of flood risk in four dimensions:risk of contributing factors,sensitivity of breeding environment,vulnerability of hazard-bearing bodies and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.Based on 11 indicies,the ArcGIS and entropy method were used to evaluate the flood risks in Hunan section of the Xiangjiang River Basin,then the final flood risk map was produced at the district and county scale.The results show that the risk of contributing factors is low in the central and western parts of the Xiangjiang River Basin,while the sensitivity of breeding environment in the central part is high;the vulnerability of hazard-bearing bodies is relatively high in the Changzhutan Rim and Hengyang City,but the former has a relatively high disaster prevention and mitigation capacity due to its good economic foundation;the distribution of flood risk in the Xiangjiang River Basin increases from northeast to southwest,with high flood risk areas in Changsha City,Yiyang City,Hengyang City and southern Yongzhou City.The different dominant factors in different regions reflect the differences in flood risks under the effect of multiple factors,the research results can provide a technical support for regional flood prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 风险评估 ARCGIS 熵权法 四维度模型 湖南省湘江流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]