海河流域大清河系暴雨中心移植和地区洪水组成分析  

Transplantation of rainstorm center and regional flood composition in the Daqing River of Haihe River Basin

作　　者：张营 毛慧慧[1] 吴洋洋 吴天傲 陈鹏飞 ZHANG Ying;MAO Huihui;WU Yangyang;WU Tianao;CHEN Pengfei(Science and Technology Consultation Center,Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission,Ministry of Water Resources,Tianjin 300170,China;School of Earth System Science,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic State Monitoring of Watershed,Guiyang 550018,China;College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部海河水利委员会科技咨询中心,天津300170 [2]天津大学地球系统科学学院,天津300072 [3]贵州省流域地理国情监测重点实验室,贵州贵阳550018 [4]河海大学农业科学与工程学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2024年第1期65-70,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

摘　　要：近年来极端天气事件频发,暴雨洪涝灾害的突发性、极端性愈发显著,海河流域大部分区域多年未经特大洪水检验,为分析未来可能发生极端暴雨洪水的致灾情况,开展暴雨中心预测及可能的地区洪水组成分析十分必要。研究以多年未发生极端暴雨洪水的大清河系为对象,基于研究区域103个雨量站降水数据,预测了河系暴雨中心可能位置,以“63·8”暴雨分布为参照,开展暴雨中心移植及地区洪水组成分析。结果表明:大清河系特大暴雨中心位置较为稳定,可能的暴雨中心位置海拔高度主要介于100~600 m之间;在相同雨量条件下,暴雨中心位于水库下游山区附近(“63·8”)时,产生洪水总量相对较大,暴雨中心位于平原地区附近时相对较小,且暴雨中心位置的变化对地区洪水组成的影响显著。In recent years,extreme weather events have been frequent,and the suddenness and extremeness of flood disasters caused by rainstorms have become more and more significant.Most areas in Haihe River Basin have not experienced extreme floods for decades.To be well prepared for the disaster of extreme flood that might happen in this area in the future,it is necessary to carry out the prediction of rainstorm center and the analysis of possible regional flood composition.Taking the Daqing River as the study area,which is unafflicted by extreme floods for many years,we predicted the possible location of the rainstorm center of the river system,based on the precipitation data of 103 rainfall stations in the study area,and then carried out the transplantation of the rainstorm center and the analysis of regional flood composition,with the distribution of rainstorm“63·8”as the reference.The results indicates that the rainstorm center is relatively fixed in Daqing river,which is likely located at the altitude between 100 and 600 m.Under the same precipitation condition,when the rainstorm center is located near the mountainous area downstream of the reservoir(which is the case for“63·8”),the total volume of flood is relatively large;when the rainstorm center is located near the plain area,the total flood volume is small,and the change of the rainstorm center location has a significant impact on the regional flood composition.

关 键 词：极端暴雨洪水 暴雨中心移植 地区洪水组成 暴雨分布 大清河水系 

分 类 号：TV122.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]