黄河流域碳排放、科技创新与产业结构优化——基于Moran’s I与PVAR的实证分析  

Carbon Emission, Technological Innovation and Industrial Structure Optimization in the Yellow River Basin: An Empirical Analysis Based on Moran’s I and PVAR

作　　者：刘建华 施天乐[1] 黄亮朝 LIU Jianhua;SHI Tianle;HUANG Liangchao(School of Management,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou Henan 450001,China;Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection&Regional Coordinated Development,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou Henan 450001,China;Institute of Subsurface Energy Systems,Clausthal University of Technology,Clausthal-Zellerfeld,Germany)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学管理学院,河南郑州450001 [2]郑州大学黄河生态保护与区域协调发展研究院,河南郑州450001 [3]克劳斯塔尔工业大学地下能源系统研究所,德国克劳斯塔尔-采勒费尔德

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第3期30-38,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：河南省软科学重大项目“黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展科技创新对策研究”(212400410002);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展协同推进研究”(21FGLB092)。

摘　　要：论文对黄河流域57个地级市2010—2020年碳排放、科技创新和产业结构优化的耦合协调度进行测算,并运用Moran’s I和PVAR模型分别探究各地市三要素间的空间相关性及互动关系。结果表明:(1)2010—2020年,黄河流域三要素耦合协调度有所提升,呈现“西低东高”的分布格局,其中山东及省会城市如郑州、太原等始终维持较高水平,甘肃、宁夏和陕西的部分城市仍处于“中度失调”和“轻度失调”阶段。(2)三要素全局Moran’s I为正且显著,高—高、低—低聚集趋势明显,“高—高”聚集区多位于山东,而“低—低”聚集区多位于甘肃、宁夏及陕西北部。(3)三要素间存在自身加强机制,科技创新能显著抑制碳排放,且与产业结构优化之间相互促进作用明显,碳排放能减缓科技创新进程,对产业结构优化有一定的倒逼作用。This paper conducts a visual analysis of the coupling and coordination degree of the three elements in 57 prefecturelevel cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2020.Moran’s I and PVAR models were used to explore the spatial correlation and interaction between the three elements of cities and states.The results are shown as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2020,the degree of coupling and coordination of the three elements in the Yellow River Basin has been improved,showing a distribution pattern of“low in the west and high in the east”.Shandong Province and provincial capital cities such as Zhengzhou and Taiyuan have always maintained a high level,while some cities in Gansu,Ningxia and Shaanxi are still in the stage of“moderate imbalance”and“mild imbalance”.(2)The overall Moran’s I of the three elements is positive and significant,and the trend of high-high and low-low clustering is obvious.The“high-high”clustering area is mostly located in Shandong Province,while the“low-low”clustering area is mostly located in Gansu,Ningxia and northern Shaanxi.(3)There was a self-strengthening mechanism among the three elements.Scientific and technological innovation can significantly suppress carbon emissions,and the interaction with the optimization of industrial structure was noticeable.Carbon emissions can hinder the pace of the progress of scientific and technological innovation and have a certain negative impact on the optimization of industrial structure.

关 键 词：黄河流域 碳排放 科技创新 产业结构优化 耦合协调 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F121.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X321