基于GTWR模型的疏勒河流域人均三维生态足迹动态变化及其影响因素分析  

Dynamic Change of Per Capita Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint in Shule River Basin Based on GTWR Model and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：李曼 韩丽 刘焕才 张艳芳 史书琦 LI Man;HAN Li;LIU Huancai;ZHANG Yanfang;SHI Shuqi(College of Geography,Shanxi Normal University,Taiyuan Shanxi 030031,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710062,China)

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学地理科学学院,山西太原030031 [2]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第3期147-154,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“冰川水资源变化对疏勒河流域绿洲系统的影响”(41701062);山西省基础研究计划面上项目“汾河流域农作物水足迹影响因素分析及预测”(202103021224258);中国博士后科学基金面上资助计划“疏勒河上游冰川群时空变化及其机制的数值模拟研究”(2019M663923XB)。

摘　　要：生态足迹是一种通过测量人类对区域自然资本利用程度评价该区域是否可持续发展的方法。疏勒河流域作为我国西北典型干旱区,分析其生态足迹的变化特征能够有效保障流域可持续发展。论文基于生产视角,通过土地利用数据、生物产品产量数据、社会经济数据和人口数据等,采用人均三维生态足迹模型对2000—2020年疏勒河流域人均足迹广度、人均足迹深度、人均三维生态足迹及自然资本存流量使用情况进行分析,探究流域人均三维生态足迹的动态变化特征,利用GTWR模型分析各因子的时空异质性。结果表明:2000—2020年,疏勒河流域人均足迹广度总体呈上—中—下游依次递减趋势;随着土地利用程度加深,人类对生物资源的占用速度超过其再生速度,流域人均足迹深度大于1;流域内各县人均三维生态足迹上升,生态压力增大,生态足迹重心总体自西向东北移动。在疏勒河流域,人均生态足迹主要受社会发展、民生福祉和工业发展三方面因素影响。Ecological footprint is a method to evaluate the sustainable development of a region by measuring the degree of human use of natural capital in the region.As a typical arid area in northwest China,analyzing the changing characteristics of the Shule River Basin’s ecological footprint can effectively ensure the sustainable development of the basin.Based on the production perspective,through land use data,biological product yield data,socio-economic data and population data,this paper uses the per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint model to analyze the size of per capita footprint,the depth of per capita footprint,the three-dimensional ecological footprint per capita and the use of natural capital in the Shule River Basin from 2000 to 2020.The dynamic change characteristics of the per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint in the watershed are explored,and the main factors affecting the ecological footprint are extracted combing with principal component analysis.The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of each factor was analyzed by GTWR model.The results show that from 2000 to 2020,affected by factors such as population density,the per capita footprint size of the Shule River Basin generally showed a trend of upward-middle-downstream decreasing.With the deepening of land use,the rate of human occupation of biological resources exceeds the rate of regeneration,and the per capita footprint depth of the watershed is greater than 1.The per capita threedimensional ecological footprint of each county in the basin increased,the ecological pressure increased,and the center of gravity of the ecological footprint generally shifted from west to northeast.In the Shule River Basin,the per capita ecological footprint is mainly affected by three factors:social development,people’s livelihood and industrial development.

关 键 词：人均三维生态足迹 人均足迹广度 人均足迹深度 时空地理加权回归 疏勒河流域 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]