科技创新驱动经济高质量发展的效应测度研究  

Research on Effect Measurement of Technological Innovation Driving High-quality Economic Development

作　　者：田雪姣 李志珍 许红丹 Tian Xuejiao;Li Zhizhen;Xu Hongdan(College of Applied Science and Technology of Beijing Union University,Beijing,100101;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,102617)

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学应用科技学院,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学经济管理学院,北京102617

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第6期130-134,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金青年项目“北京市经济高质量发展的科技创新驱动效应评估研究”(21GLC054)。

摘　　要：本文基于“投入-产出”与“双高双优”原则分别构建科技创新与经济高质量发展的指标体系,合成科技创新景气指数和经济高质量发展景气指数,分析验证两者的波动性、时滞性及相关性;构建基于景气指数的科技创新驱动经济高质量发展自向量回归模型,测度驱动发展指数;最后以北京市为例进行实证研究。结果发现,北京市科技创新与经济高质量发展呈周期性波动发展,且科技创新对经济高质量发展具有强驱动作用。研究边际贡献在于提供了一种科技创新景气周期和经济高质量发展景气周期的计算方法,并提出了科技创新驱动经济高质量发展的效应测度方法。Based on the"input-output"and"double-high,double-excellent"principles,this paper constructs indicator systems for technological innovation and high-quality economic development,respectively.It synthesizes indices for the prosperity of technological innovation and high-quality economic development to analyze and verify their volatility,lag,and correlation.A vector autoregression model of technological innovation driving high-quality economic development based on prosperity indices is then constructed to measure the indices driving development.Finally,an empirical study is conducted using Beijing as a case.The results reveal that Beijing's technological innovation and high-quality economic development exhibit cyclical fluctuations,and technological innovation has a strong driving effect on high-quality economic development.The marginal contribution of this research lies in providing a method to calculate the prosperity cycles of technological innovation and high-quality economic development and proposing a method to measure the effects of technological innovation driving high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：科技创新(TI) 经济高质量发展(ED) 景气指数 自回归分布滞后模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]