PBX9502冲击Hugoniot曲线的参数标定和不确定度量化  

Parameter Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification of Shock Hugoniot Curve of PBX9502

作　　者：梁霄 张培红[2] 王瑞利[3] 陈江涛[2] LIANG Xiao;ZHANG Peihong;WANG Ruili;CHEN Jiangtao(School of Mathematics and System Science,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China;China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center,Mianyang 621000,China;Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学数学与系统科学学院,山东青岛266590 [2]中国空气动力研究与发展中心,四川绵阳621000 [3]北京应用物理与计算数学研究所,北京100094

出　　处：《弹道学报》2024年第1期104-110,共7页Journal of Ballistics

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2021MA056);国家数值风洞工程(NNW2017ZT7-A13);国家自然科学-中国工程物理研究院联合基金(U2230208)。

摘　　要：冲击Hugoniot试验不可避免地受到不确定因素的扰动,冲击Hugoniot关系的参数标定和不确定度量化对理解爆轰多物理过程的动力行为极为关键。首先,收集Los Alamos实验室的粒子速度-冲击波速度试验数据,通过不确定度传递律计算冲击波速度的标准不确定度,结果表明不能仅仅依靠绝对偏差的大小来判断异常值。采用基于绝对偏差距离的自适应聚类异常值检测法,剔除试验数据中的异常干扰点。其次,针对清洗后的试验数据,利用最小二乘回归方法拟合粒子速度-冲击波速度的冲击Hugoniot关系,并利用统计理论推导出Hugoniot参数的不确定度。进而,使用国内试验装置和试验数据,通过建立合适的误差公式,将Hugoniot曲线的预测值与试验值做比对,预测结果与试验结果吻合良好。结果还表明:清洗后的Hugoniot关系能更准确地预测PBX9502的冲击动力行为,确认标定参数的有效性。最后,将Chapman-Jouguet理论结合合理的假设和近似,给出了基于Hugoniot关系爆压的计算公式,给出了爆压的不确定度量化。研究结果能为发展强预测能力、高可信度软件提供保证。Shock Hugoniot experiment is inevitably disturbed by uncertain factors.Parameter calibration and uncertainty quantification of Hugoniot parameters plays a key role in understanding the dynamical behavior of multi-physics detonation process.To begin with,Hugoniot data of particle velocity-shock wave velocity from Los Alamos National Library were gathered.Standard uncertainty of shock velocity was deduced from the law of propagation of uncertainty.The result shows that absolute error value can’t be the unique standard to determine the maverick points.Adaptive cluster outlier detection method based on the distance of absolute error was used to screen anomaly of experimental data.Furthermore,least squares regression method was utilized to fit the particle velocity-shock velocity data after removal of outliers,and the shock Hugoniot relationship was obtained.Moreover,the uncertainty of Hugoniot parameter was also deduced through statistical theory.To make it further,domestic experiment data and experimental setup was applied to validate the availability.The predictable data from Hugoniot curve and experimental results were compared by using the constructed error formula.The predictable results are in excellent agreement with experimental results.The result also shows that Hugoniot relationship based on data clean can better predict the shock dynamics of PBX9502,so the methodology is evaluated.The result provides guidance for developing predictable and highly confidential software.Last,by Chapman-Jouguet theory combined with reasonable hypothesis and approximation,the detonation pressure based on Hugoniot relationship was obtained.And uncertainty quantification of detonation pressure was also provided.The method can provide guidance for developing highly predictable and confidential software.

关 键 词：异常值检测 冲击Hugoniot关系 自适应聚类 不确定度量化 参数标定 Chapman-Jouguet理论 

分 类 号：TJ55[兵器科学与技术—军事化学与烟火技术]