全球价值链重构背景下印度承接产业转移的前景分析  

Analysis of India’s Prospects in Undertaking Industry Relocation Amidst the Restructuring of Global Value Chains

作　　者：张晓旭 高翔[1,2] 杨翠红 ZHANG Xiaoxu;GAO Xiang;YANG Cuihong(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190 [3]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2024年第1期58-87,共30页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71988101,72103184);国家社会科学基金(19ZDA062,22CJY019)。

摘　　要：在政治、经济和科技等多种因素的影响下,全球价值链正在经历深刻调整.美西方和印度自身正在积极出台一系列产业政策,引导印度成为新一轮国际产业转移的承接地.本文构建了一个定量评估框架以衡量一个国家/地区承接国际产业转移的前景,并围绕印度开展了案例研究,补充了现有研究的不足.总体来看,莫迪政府实现“印度制造”取代“中国制造”可谓道阻且长.印度潜在优势的6个行业包括食品、饮料和烟草制造业,基本金属,纸制品及印刷业,其他非金属矿产品,其他运输设备,计算机、电子及光学设备.其中,食品、饮料和烟草制造业,纸制品及印刷业和其他非金属矿产品可能会率先承接中国对外产业转移.越南、泰国和保加利亚在食品、饮料和烟草制造业,越南和马来西亚在纸制品及印刷业,以及越南、马来西亚、泰国和保加利亚在其他非金属矿产品上,具备和印度竞争的能力.Under the influence of various factors such as politics,economics,and technology,global value chains are undergoing profound adjustments.Western countries and India itself are actively enacting a series of industrial policies aimed at positioning India as a focal point for the new phase of international industry relocation.This paper constructs a quantitative assessment framework to gauge a country/region’s potential as a recipient of international industry relocation,and conducts a case study of India.Overall,the Modi government’s realization of“Made in India”to replace“Made in China”can be described as a long and difficult road.We identified six sectors where India has potential advantages,including food,beverage and tobacco manufacturing;base metals;paper products and printing;other non-metallic mineral products;other transportation equipment;and computer,electronic and optical equipment.Among these,the food,beverage,and tobacco manufacturing,paper products and printing,and other non-metallic mineral products industries may be the first to undertake China’s external industrial transfer.Vietnam,Thailand,and Bulgaria are competitive with India in the food,beverage,and tobacco manufacturing industry;Vietnam and Malaysia in paper products and printing;and Vietnam,Malaysia,Thailand,and Bulgaria in other non-metallic mineral products.

关 键 词：国际产业转移 制造业 印度 投入产出技术 应对建议 

分 类 号：F135.1[经济管理—世界经济]