延长产假对流动女性“生育—失业”的影响基于全国流动人口调查数据  

Extended Maternity Leave and Migrant Women’s Fertility-Unemployment Paradox:Based on China Migrants Dynamic Survey Data

作　　者：石智雷[1] 王璋 SHI Zhilei;:WANG Zhang(Population and Health Research Center,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学人口与健康研究中心

出　　处：《社会》2024年第2期213-242,共30页Chinese Journal of Sociology

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“流动人口二代成年后面临的问题研究”(22&ZD196)的支持。

摘　　要：本研究提出延长产假的“社会分化效应假说”,来重新解释因为延长产假而在流动女性群体中出现的“生育—失业悖论”,并利用2016年中国各省份的《人口与计划生育条例》修订这一外生事件和2016年、2018年全国流动人口调查数据,对该理论进行检验。研究发现,延长产假能够有效提升流动女性的二孩生育意愿,但同时也会显著增加流动女性的失业风险,产假每延长1个月,流动女性失业的概率就会增加11.76%。但是,产假延长只提升了高社会经济地位流动女性的二孩生育意愿,却使得低社会经济地位流动女性的失业风险升高。作为保护弱势群体的家庭政策,产假延长政策在实施过程中产生了新的不平等,使低社会经济地位流动女性陷入更困难的境地。本研究不仅拓展了低生育问题研究视域,也为完善公共政策和引导现代家庭发展提供了理论参考。This study proposes a hypothesis of social differentiation effects of extended maternity leave to reinterpret the“fertility-unemployment paradox”caused by extended maternity leave among migrant women.In 2016,China introduced revisions of extended maternity leave to the provincial Population and Family Planning Regulations.This paper examines the aftereffect of the 2016 and 2018 CMDS data and tests the hypothesis empirically by using the propensity score matching and instrumental variable method.The study finds that extending maternity leave can effectively improve migrant women's willingness to have a second child,but at the same time it significantly increases the risk of unemployment for them.The probability of unemployment increases by 11.76%for every month of maternity leave extension.This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests.In addition,there is a threshold value for the impact of extended maternity leave on the second child fertility intention.When the length of maternity leave exceeds 180 days,further extension can no longer increase migrant women’s desire to have a second child.Further examination finds that the“fertility-unemployment paradox”of maternity leave extension is only a symptom.The maternity leave extension policy with its original intention of supporting families and protecting women creates a social differentiation effect among migrant women,that is,the extension of maternity leave only increases the second child fertility intention of migrant women with high socioeconomic status in terms of education,income and formal employment,but it puts migrant women of low socioeconomic status such as rural migrant workers with low education in a much greater risk of unemployment.As a family policy intended to protect vulnerable groups,the maternity leave extension policy has instead created new inequalities in its implementation,causing more difficulties for migrant women of low socioeconomic status.This study not only contributes to the research on low fertility,but al

关 键 词：产假延长 生育—失业悖论 社会分化 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] C913.68[经济管理—国民经济] C924.2[社会学]