一种自导鱼雷发现概率变化趋势预测方法  

A method for predicting the change trend of homing torpedo discovery probability

作　　者：史彦山[1] SHI Yanshan(Jiangsu Automation Research Institute,Lianyungang 222061,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏自动化研究所,江苏连云港222061

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2024年第2期135-140,共6页Command Control & Simulation

摘　　要：针对自导鱼雷发射前预知鱼雷发现概率随发射态势变化趋势的需求,提出了一种自导鱼雷发现概率变化趋势预测方法。根据现时刻攻击态势构建鱼雷发射态势预测模型,生成后续鱼雷发射态势序列;基于正态分布原理进行目标散布处理,并分别提出面积比值法和长度比值法计算声自导和尾流自导鱼雷单个发射点发现概率计算方法;综合以上处理方法,计算自导鱼雷未来一段时间内连续发射态势点的发现概率,生成变化趋势。最后,采用典型的发射态势对自导鱼雷发现概率变化趋势预测结果进行了测试验证。The torpedo discovery probability is associated with launch situation before homing torpedo launched.In order to meet the need,a method for predicting the tendency probability change is proposed.The torpedo launch situation prediction model is built according to the current attack situation,and the torpedo launch situation sequence is generated.Based on the principle of normal distribution,target dispersion is processed.The area ratio method is used to calculate the single launch point discovery probability of acoustic homing torpedo,and length ratio method is used for wake homing torpedo.Based on the above processing methods,the continuous discovery probability of homing torpedo at launch time is calculated,and the trend chart is generated.Finally,the prediction result of finding probability variation trend of homing torpedo is tested and verified by using typical launch situation.

关 键 词：自导鱼雷 态势预测 发现概率 

分 类 号：TJ63[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] E917[军事]