不确定条件下作战筹划态势研判风险预测方法  

Risk prediction method for operational planning situation analysis under uncertain conditions

作　　者：贾琦 吉琳娜[1] 王肖霞[1] 杨风暴[1] JIA Qi;JI Linna;WANG Xiaoxia;YANG Fengbao(School of Information and Communication Engineering,North University of China,Taiyuan 030051,China)

机构地区：[1]中北大学信息与通信工程学院,山西太原030051

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2024年第2期141-149,共9页Command Control & Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61972363);山西省基础研究计划项目(202203021221104);中北大学研究生科技基金(20221832)。

摘　　要：针对战场态势不确定、复杂繁多导致研判过程风险预测准确性差的问题,提出构建态势-风险模型并构造风险可能性分布以实现对风险的精准预测。首先,从敌情、我情以及战场环境态势研判内容入手建立风险预测指标体系;其次,剖析态势信息对风险的作用方式,构建指数、Z型、正切等风险模型并计算风险取值区间;然后,以可能性理论中模糊函数构造法为基础,以权重差和不确定性测度为依托,在风险取值区间内构造风险可能性分布;最后,采用某防御任务实例,结合专家系统及云模型方法进行实验,验证了所提方法的可行性和合理性。结果表明,在风险预测时所提方法能够充分考虑态势信息的不确定性,为后续筹划决策制定提供了重要依据。Aiming at the problem of uncertainty and complexity of battlefield situation,which leads to the poor accuracy of risk prediction in the process of research and judgment,it is proposed to build a situationrisk model and construct the risk possibility distribution in order to realize the accurate prediction of risk.Firstly,the risk prediction index system is established from the enemy situation,our situation and the battlefield environment situation research and judgment content;secondly,the role of situation information on the risk is analyzed,and the risk model such as exponential,Ztype,tangent and so on is constructed and the risk value interval is calculated;then,based on the fuzzy function constructing method in the possibility theory,and relying on the weighting difference and uncertainty measurement,the risk possibility distribution is constructed within the risk value interval.Finally,an example of a defense mission is used to verify the feasibility and reasonableness of the proposed method by combining the expert system and cloud modeling methods in an experiment.The results show that the proposed method can fully take into account the uncertainty of situational information in risk prediction,which provides an important basis for subsequent planning decisionmaking.

关 键 词：作战筹划 不确定性 态势研判 可能性分布 风险预测 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]