计及季度趋势变时间步长风速仿真模型及应用  

Simulation Model of Wind Speed with Variable Time Steps Considering SeasonalTrend and Its Application

作　　者：帅小涵 缪书唯 SHUAI Xiaohan;MIAO Shuwei(College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,宜昌443002

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2024年第3期132-141,共10页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：为提高风电并网系统充裕度评估精度,提出计及季度趋势的变时间步长风速仿真模型。该模型应用奇异谱分析从风速样本中提取季度趋势和随机波动分量,应用线性插值和奥恩斯坦-乌伦贝克过程对两分量建模,产生任意时间步长的仿真风速样本。将该模型嵌入蒙特卡罗模拟法,提出风电并网系统的季度充裕度评估方法。应用该模型仿真某观测站风速样本,评估风电并网IEEE-RTS发电系统的季度充裕度,结果表明,该模型可产生与实测风速样本统计指标等特征接近的任意时间步长仿真风速样本,且季度充裕度评估精度较高。To improve the accuracy of adequacy evaluation for a wind power integration system,a simulation model of wind speed with variable time steps considering seasonal trend is proposed in this paper.The seasonal trend and stochastic fluctuation components are extracted from the wind speed samples by applying the singular spectrum analysis.Then,the simulated wind speed samples with any time steps are generated by modeling these two components using linear interpolation and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.A seasonal adequacy evaluation method for the wind power integration system is put forward by embedding the model with Monte Carlo simulation.The proposed model is applied to simulate wind speed samples measured at one observatory,and the seasonal adequacy of a wind power integrated IEEE-RTS generation system is evaluated.Results show that this model can generate simulated wind speed samples with any time steps,which share similar statistical indices and other characteristics with those of the measured samples.In addition,the accuracy of seasonal adequacy evaluation is improved.

关 键 词：风速仿真 季度趋势 变时间步长 奇异谱分析 充裕度评估 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]