2005-2022年湖北省荆州市法定报告传染病发病趋势分析  

Analysis on incidences of notifiable infectious diseases in Jingzhou,Hubei,2005−2022

作　　者：刘天[1,2] 赵婧 徐琴雯[1] 阮德欣 秦周 向泉 姚梦雷 宋开发[1] 黄继贵[1] 黄淑琼[4] Liu Tian;Zhao Jing;Xu Qinwen;Ruan Dexin;Qin Zhou;Xiang Quan;Yao Menglei;Song Kaifa;Huang Jigui;Huang Shuqiong(Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou Prefectural Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou 434000,Hubei,China;Public Health Research Center,Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434000,Hubei,China;Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan 430079,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]荆州市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所,湖北荆州434000 [2]长江大学公共卫生研究中心,湖北荆州434000 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心,北京102206 [4]湖北省疾病预防控制中心,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《疾病监测》2024年第2期215-222,共8页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的分析2005—2022年湖北省荆州市法定报告传染病趋势变化,为精准制定防控政策提供依据。方法自中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2005—2022年荆州市法定报告传染病病例信息及人口数据,分甲乙类、丙类,分传播途径分别分析。采用Joinpoint回归分析长期趋势变化,以年度变化百分比(APC)、平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)及其95%置信区间(CI)作为测量指标。采用季节分解分析法定报告传染病季节性,描述性流行病学方法分析流行特征。结果2005—2022年荆州市累计报告甲乙丙3类37种法定报告传染病,其中呼吸道传染病13种,消化道传播的传染病10种,血液及性传播的传染病6种,自然疫源性传染病8种。累计报告595949例,年均报告发病率576.74/10万;死亡735例,报告死亡率0.71/10万,报告病死率0.12%。报告发病率整体呈上升趋势(AAPC=2.80%,95%CI:0.33%~5.34%)。甲乙类传染病共报告351218例,死亡727例,年均报告发病率339.90/10万,报告发病率呈下降趋势(AAPC=−1.87%,95%CI:−2.98%~−0.74%)。丙类传染病共报告244731例,死亡8例,年均报告发病率236.84/10万,报告发病率呈上升趋势(AAPC=9.88%,95%CI:4.44%~15.61%)。分传播途径来看,甲乙类传染病中呼吸道、消化道和自然疫源性传播传染病呈下降趋势,血源及性传播传染病无明显趋势变化。丙类传染病中呼吸道、消化道传播传染病均呈上升趋势。呼吸道传染病春季高发,消化道传染病夏季及冬季高发,自然疫源性传染病3—8月高发。男性(354467例,675.17/10万)报告发病率高于女性[241482例,475.08/10万,发病率比(IRR)=1.42,95%CI:1.41~1.43]。45岁以上人群高发年龄随时间呈现向高年龄组转移的特点。死亡病例中,血源及性传播传染病报告最多(431例,艾滋病占52.79%),其次为自然疫源性传染病(165例,狂犬病占17.96%),呼吸道传染病报告126例(肺结核分别占9.39%、7.21%)。结论2005—2022年荆州市甲乙�Objective To analyze the incidence trends and changes of notifiable infectious diseases in Jingzhou,Hubei province,from 2005 to 2022,and provide evidence for the formulation of prevention and control policies.Methods The incidence data of notifiable infectious diseases and population data in Jingzhou from 2005 to 2022 were collected from Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System for an analysis based on class A,B and C and transmission routes.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate long-term trend changes by using annual percent change(APC),average annual percent change(AAPC),and their 95%confidence intervals(CIs).Seasonal decomposition analysis was used to evaluate the seasonality of reported cases of notifiable infectious diseases,while descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the characteristics of the incidence trends of the diseases.Results From 2005 to 2022,a total of 37 notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Jingzhou,including 13 respiratory infectious diseases,10 gastrointestinal infectious diseases,6 blood and sexually transmitted infectious diseases,and 8 natural foci infectious diseases.A total of 595949 cases of notifiable infectious diseases.Including 735 deaths,were reported,with average annual morbidity rate of 576.74/100000,mortality rate of 0.71/100000 and case fatality rate of 0.12%.The overall morbidity rate showed an upward trend(AAPC=2.80%,95%CI:0.33%−5.34%).A total of 351218 cases of class A and B infectious diseases,including 727 deaths,were reported,with average annual morbidity rate of 339.90/100000,and the incidence rate showed a downward trend(AAPC=−1.87%,95%CI:−2.98%−0.74%).A total of 244731 cases of class C infectious diseases,including 8 deaths,were reported,with average annual incidence rate of 236.84/100000,and the morbidity rate showed an upward trend(AAPC=9.88%,95%CI:4.44%to 15.61%).In terms of transmission routes,the incidences of respiratory,gastrointestinal,and natural foci infectious diseases in class A and B showed do

关 键 词：法定报告传染病 趋势 荆州市 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R181.23