2013―2022年山东省65岁及以上老年人肺结核流行特征及空间聚集性  

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly aged 65 and over in Shandong Province,2013-2022

作　　者：代炳芹 张艺馨 孙晓英 张吉玉[1] 吴光健[1] 曹杰[1] 孙成玺[1] 马吉祥[3] DAI Bingqin;ZHANG Yixin;SUN Xiaoying;ZHANG Jiyu;WU Guangjian;CAO Jie;SUN Chengxi;MA Jixiang(Business Management Department,Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250014,China;Department of Statistics,Shandong Public Health Clinical Center,Jinan 250101,China;Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省疾病预防控制中心业务管理部,济南250014 [2]山东省公共卫生临床中心统计科,济南250101 [3]山东省疾病预防控制中心,济南250014

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2024年第2期131-137,170,共8页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(202012071504);山东省疾病预防控制中心青年创新基金(QC-2022-01)。

摘　　要：目的分析2013―2022年山东省65岁及以上老年人(老年人)肺结核流行特征及空间聚集性,为制定精准防控措施提供参考依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集数据资料,采用描述性分析、Joinpoint回归分析及空间自相关分析方法分析老年人肺结核流行特征及空间聚集性。结果2013―2022年山东省共报告老年人肺结核病例76176例,年均发病率为59.09/10万,每年1―3月为发病高峰,以男性农民为主。Joinpoint回归分析显示,2013―2022年老年人肺结核报告发病率呈下降趋势,年度变化百分比为-8.92%(95%CI:-10.32%~-7.51%,P<0.05)。全局空间自相关分析结果显示,老年人肺结核报告发病率各年度Moran′s I指数为0.135~0.481(均P<0.05),提示存在空间聚集性。局部空间自相关分析结果显示,“高-高”聚集区主要集中在鲁西地区的的聊城市及鲁北地区的德州市和滨州市。结论山东省2013―2022年老年人肺结核发病率呈下降趋势,以男性农民为主,鲁西、鲁北等“高-高”聚集区需重点防控。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in the elderly aged 65 and over in Shandong Province,so as to provide a reference for the development of precise prevention and control measures.Methods Case data were obtained from the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System.The epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of PTB among the elderly were analyzed by descriptive analysis,Joinpoint regression analysis,and spatial autocorrelation analysis.Results A total of 76176 elderly patients with PTB were reported in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022.The average annual incidence was 59.09/100000.The incidence peaked in January to March each year,and cases were predominantly among male farmers.Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence of elderly PTB had an decreasing trend from 2013 to 2022,with an annual percentage changes(APC)value of-8.92%(95%CI:-10.32%--7.51%,P<0.05).The results of global spatial autocorrelation showed that the Moran′s I index of the reported incidence of PTB in the elderly ranged from 0.135 to 0.481(all P<0.05),suggesting the existence of spatial clustering.Local spatial autocorrelation results showed that the"High-High"clustering areas concentrated in the west of Shandong such as Liaocheng,and the north of Shandong such as Dezhou and Binzhou.Conclusions In Shandong Province,the incidence of PTB among the elderly from 2013 to 2022 is on a downward trend,with male farmers as the main population,the"High-High"aggregation areas in the west and north of Shandong Province need to be emphasized for prevention and control.

关 键 词：肺结核 老年人 流行特征 空间自相关 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]