长沙市不同等级气温与人腺病毒感染效应分析  

Analysis of the effects of different temperature levels in Changsha on human adenovirus infection

作　　者：罗飘异 匡文韬 倪涵 符刘懿 吕媛[1] 查文婷[1] 易尚辉[1] 张斯钰[2] LUO Piaoyi;KUANG Wentao;NI Han;FU Liuyi;LYU Yuan;ZHA Wenting;YI Shanghui;ZHANG Siyu(Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province,School of Medicine,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410013,China;Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Changsha 410005,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学医学院,分子流行病学湖南省重点实验室,长沙410013 [2]湖南省疾病预防控制中心,长沙410005

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2024年第2期152-160,共9页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：湖南省科技创新重大项目(2020SK1010);湖南省自然科学基金(2020JJ8007);湖南省教育厅重点项目(21A0023);长沙市自然科学基金(kq2202254)。

摘　　要：目的探讨不同等级气温对人腺病毒(human adenoviruses,HAdV)感染情况的影响及其滞后效应。方法收集长沙市3家哨点医院2020年HAdV感染资料和同期气象资料,采用Spearman秩相关分析气象因素与HAdV感染病例数的相关性;将不同等级气温(日平均、日最高、日最低气温)P97.5作为划定极低温和极高温的阈值,利用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag nonlinear model,DLNM)探讨不同等级气温对HAdV感染情况的影响和滞后效应。结果2020年,在长沙市41624份标本中开展HAdV检测,检出阳性1693份,检出率为4.06%,其中0~<5岁婴幼儿占67.04%。Spearman秩相关分析结果显示,HAdV感染与日平均气温(r_(s)=-0.121)、日最高气温(r_(s)=-0.110)和日最低气温(r_(s)=-0.119)存在弱相关(均P<0.05)。在DLNM中,三维图和等高线图均显示,HAdV感染风险存在高温短期效应。极高温条件下,日平均和日最低气温对HAdV感染风险产生单日滞后效应。同时,日平均与日最高气温的累积效应随滞后天数的增加逐渐上升,滞后21 d时,其相对风险分别上升至15.79(95%CI:2.69~92.79)、11.81(95%CI:2.26~61.68);在滞后4 d时,日最低气温的累积效应最高(RR=6.78,95%CI:1.05~43.83)。结论婴幼儿是HAdV的易感人群,不同等级气温与HAdV感染情况存在相关性,且极高温条件下可显著提高长沙市HAdV感染风险的单日和累积滞后效应。Objective The objective of this study was to examine the impact and lag effects of varying temperature levels on human adenovirus(HAdV)infection.Methods We collected information on HAdV infection in 2020 and meteorological data for the same period from three sentinel hospitals in Changsha.Spearman rank correlation was employed to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and the number of HAdV infection cases.Different temperature levels,including daily average,daily maximum,and daily minimum,were categorized using thresholds below P2.5 and above P97.5 to define extremely low and high temperatures.The distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was utilized to investigate the impact and lag effect of different temperature levels on HAdV infection.Results In 2020,a total of 41624 specimens were examined in Changsha,with 1693 yielding positive results for HAdV,resulting in a prevalence rate of 4.07%.Of these cases,infants and children aged 0-4 years comprised 67.04%.Spearman rank correlation analysis indicated that weak associations(all P<0.05)between HAdV infection and daily average temperature(r_(s)=-0.121),daily maximum temperature(r_(s)=-0.110),and daily minimum temperature(r_(s)=-0.119).The distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)showed that both three-dimensional plot(3-D plot)and contour plots revealed a noticeable short-term effect of high temperature on the risk of HAdV infection.Specifically,under extremely high temperature conditions,both daily average and daily minimum temperatures were found to exhibit a lagged impact on the risk of HAdV infection for a single day.Moreover,the cumulative effects of daily average and daily maximum temperatures displayed a gradual increase with longer lag periods.At a lag of 21 days,the relative risks rose to 15.79(95%CI:2.69-92.79)and 11.81(95%CI:2.26-61.68),respectively.Additionally,the cumulative effect of daily minimum temperature reached its peak at a lag of 4 days(RR=6.78,95%CI:1.05-43.83).Conclusions Infants and young children are particularly vulnerable to HA

关 键 词：气温 人腺病毒 哨点监测 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科]