江西省社区居民生理性衰老拐点年龄分析与判断研究  

Analysis and judgment of age of physiological aging inflection point of Jiangxi community residents

作　　者：张朗朗 熊俊熙 刘勇[1] 杨善岚 涂嘉欣 黄河浪[1] 吴磊[1] ZHANG Langlang;XIONG Junxi;LIU Yong;YANG Shanlan;TU Jiaxin;HUANG Helang;WU Lei(School of Public Health of Nanchang University,Jiangxi Province Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine,Nanchang 330006,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学公共卫生学院,江西省预防医学重点实验室,南昌330006

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2024年第2期191-197,共7页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81960620,81360446,71663037)。

摘　　要：目的探究不同年龄居民生理衰老的动态变化规律及拐点,为不同年龄段人群延缓衰老措施的研究提供参考。方法采用多阶段分层整群抽样方法,抽取江西省部分社区≥20岁5106名社区居民为研究对象。采用《生理-心理-社会三维人体衰老度量表(physiological-psychological-social three dimensional human aging scale,PPSHAS)》测量样本人群的生理衰老度分值,通过局部加权回归(locally weighted regression,LOESS)平滑曲线拟合样本人群的生理衰老变化曲线;根据生理衰老度评分结果将居民分为衰老组和未衰老组,绘制受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)以确定生理衰老度拐点的截断值,并采用曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)等系列指标评价其预测价值;对影响拐点的混杂因素进行二元logistic回归分析模型调整,用C指数验证拐点年龄对衰老度的预测价值。结果不同年龄段居民生理衰老度随年龄呈曲线升高;生命不同阶段的拐点年龄有4个,分别是38.2(AUC=0.586,P<0.01)、49.4(AUC=0.555,P<0.01)、68.9(AUC=0.545,P<0.01)和76.9岁(AUC=0.546,P<0.01);Logistic回归分析模型分析结果显示,控制混杂影响后,拐点年龄对生理衰老度变化具有预测价值,其中青年人C指数为0.694(P=0.03)、中年人C指数为0.601(P<0.01)、年轻老人C指数为0.658(P<0.01)、老年人C指数为0.627(P<0.01)。结论人体生理衰老的过程并非匀速,不同年龄段人群生理衰老均有拐点,且经模型验证均有显著性意义。Objective To explore the dynamic changes and inflection points of physiological aging in residents of different ages,and to provide reference for the study of anti-aging/anti-aging measures in different age groups.Methods A multi-stage stratified cluster sampling method was used to select 5106 community residents aged over 20 years in some communities in Jiangxi Province.The physiological aging degree score of the sample population was measured by physiological-psychological-social three dimensional human aging scale,and the physiological aging curve of the sample population was fitted by locally weighted scatterplot smoothing curve method.According to the results of physiological aging score,the residents were divided into aging group and non-aging group,and the receiver operator characteristic curve was drawn to determine the cut-off value of the inflection point of physiological aging,and a series of indicators such as area under curve value were used to evaluate its predictive value.The binary logistic regression model adjustment of the confounding factors affecting the inflection point was carried out,and the predictive value of the age of the inflection point on aging degree was verified by the C index.Results The physiological aging degree of residents of different ages increased with age;There were four inflection point ages at different stages of life,namely 38.2 years(AUC=0.586,P<0.01),49.4 years(AUC=0.555,P<0.01),68.9 years(AUC=0.545,P<0.01),76.9 years(AUC=0.546,P<0.01);The logistic regression results showed that after controlling for the mixed effects,the inflection point age had predictive value on the change of physiological aging,and the C index of young people was 0.694(P=0.03),that of middle-aged people was 0.601(P<0.01),that of young and elderly people was 0.658(P<0.01),and that of the elderly was 0.627(P<0.01).Conclusions The process of physiological aging in human body is not uniform,and physiological aging of people of different ages has inflection points,and inflection points are significant

关 键 词：老龄化 生理衰老 拐点年龄 受试者工作特征曲线 流行病学 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]