中国三代核电经济评价方法与参数优化  

Economic Evaluation Method and Parameter Optimization for Third-Generation Nuclear Power in China

作　　者：郭娟娟 沈迪 童朴 闫琨 张小凡 何昉 GUO Juanjuan;SHEN Di;TONG Pu;YAN Kun;ZHANG Xiaofan;HE Fang(China Institute of Nuclear Industry Strategy,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]中核战略规划研究总院有限公司,北京100048

出　　处：《中国电力》2024年第3期206-212,223,共8页Electric Power

基　　金：中国核工业集团有限公司“青年英才”科研项目(基于MBSE的核燃料闭式循环经济分析模型研究,CJZ-YC-2022-A-GLS2-001-B)。

摘　　要：“双碳”目标为清洁低碳的核电提供了新机遇。《核电厂建设项目经济评价方法》(NB/T 20048—2011)(以下简称2011版能标)是核电建设项目经济评价的主要依据,2011年发布以来至今未修订。当前,核电技术、行业政策和市场环境等的深刻变化均对2011版能标相关参数的优化调整提出了新要求。从技术经济评价参数、涉核相关费用、电力市场改革及运维成本划分4个方面提出了2011版能标需要优化调整的内容及参数,并基于财务分析方法计算了参数调整前后的电价水平,对经济评价期、负荷因子、退役基金提取比例、首炉料待摊年限4个参数进行了敏感性分析。参数调整后平均发电成本降低了5%左右,经济评价期和负荷因子对降低发电成本影响更明显。As the clean and low-carbon energy,the nuclear power has become more and more important in achieving the dual carbon target."The economic evaluation guidelines of the nuclear power plant construction project"(NB/T 20048-2011)is the main basis for economic evaluation of the nuclear power construction projects,but it has not been revised since its release in 2011.At present,the profound changes of nuclear power technology,industrial policies and market environment bring about new requirements for the 2011-edition standard.This paper proposes the contents and parameters that need to be optimized and adjusted in the 2011-edition standard from four aspects of economic evaluation parameters,nuclear-related costs,electricity market reform,and maintenance cost division.Moreover,the electricity price level before and after the parameter adjustment are calculated using the financial analysis method.Finally,a sensitivity analysis is made on four parameters including economic evaluation period,load factor,the extraction proportion of retirement fund,and the amortization period of the first furnace charge.The average generation cost decreases by 5%after parameter adjustment,and the economic period and load factor have more obvious impact on decreasing generation cost.

关 键 词：三代核电 经济评价方法 双碳目标 电力市场化改革 

分 类 号：F426.23[经济管理—产业经济] F426.61