拉丁美洲主要国家碳中和状况分析及对我国的启示  

Analysis of Carbon Neutrality in Major Latin American Countries and the Inspiration for China

作　　者：崔倩[1] 杨晨 朱江玲[2] CUI Qian;YANG Chen;ZHU Jiangling(School of European Language and Culture Studies,Dalian University of Foreign Languages,Dalian 116044;Institute of Ecology,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]大连外国语大学欧洲语言学院,辽宁大连116044 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京大学生态研究中心,地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2024年第2期106-115,共10页Geography and Geo-Information Science

摘　　要：巴西、墨西哥、阿根廷和智利4个拉美国家社会经济发展与我国处于相似阶段,分析其碳排放特征、评估其碳中和政策的成效,对我国碳中和实现路径的探索具有借鉴意义。该文利用拉美4国的化石燃料碳排放、陆地碳收支等数据,分析其1990—2016年碳排放及陆地生态系统碳收支特征及驱动因素;系统梳理拉美4国长期减排目标相关政策规划,采用情景分析方法评估各国2017—2050年的减排成效和碳中和状况。研究表明:①经济增长和人口膨胀是驱动拉美4国碳排放量上升的主要原因,但墨西哥、阿根廷和智利的能源强度变化一定程度上抑制了碳排放量增加;陆地生态系统碳收支主要受毁林活动强度和森林碳汇功能影响,巴西、阿根廷因毁林活动较强远离碳中和目标,但墨西哥和智利的陆地生态系统能吸收部分化石燃料碳排放,其中智利大致接近碳中和状态。②情景预测结果显示,现有政策规划可实现巴西2025年和2030年阶段性目标、阿根廷2030年阶段性目标以及智利2050年碳中和目标,可使巴西基本接近2050年碳中和目标,但在实现阿根廷2050年碳中和目标以及墨西哥各阶段性目标上存在困难。基于研究结果提出我国在碳中和实现路径和方案探索中,应注重推动能源结构整体优化、持续提升能源利用效率、充分发掘陆地生态系统碳汇潜力等建议。Brazil,Mexico,Argentina and Chile are four large developing countries in Latin American that are going on their development stage comparable to China.Getting insight into the carbon emissions and the effectiveness of the carbon neutrality policies in these countries are expected to be beneficial for China′s carbon neutrality aspirations.With the data of the national fossil fuel carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon balance of the four countries from 1990 to 2016,this paper examined the individuality and commonality in the carbon emission and carbon sequestration features and the driving forces.Thereafter,based on a systematic and comprehensive review of policy planning related to long-term emission reduction goals in the four Latin American countries,the scenario analysis method was used to evaluate the carbon emission reduction effectiveness and carbon neutrality of each country from 2017 to 2050.It is found as follows.①The economic growth and demographic expansion were the two most important factors that pushed the fossil fuel carbon emissions in all the four countries.The improvement in energy utilization intensity in Mexico,Argentina and Chile had the effect of mitigating carbon emissions.Deforestation deviated Brazil and Argentina from their carbon neutrality goals while Mexico and Chile′s terrestrial ecosystems had sequestered amount of carbon from the atmosphere to offset their fossil fuel emissions,by which Chile is nearing its carbon neutrality.②The scenario analysis suggested that the current policies might facilitate Brazil to commit its 2025 and 2030 goals and close to its 2050 carbon neutrality goal.The current policies may also support Argentina commit its 2030 goal and Chile commit its 2050 carbon neutrality goal.However,there are challenges to Argentina′s 2050 goal and Mexico′s all intermediate goals.In light of these results,China′s carbon neutrality strategies should prioritize three aspects:optimizing the energy structure,promoting energy efficiency,and enhancing terrestrial car

关 键 词：碳中和 化石燃料 陆地生态系统 碳排放 碳汇 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]