中国省域经济效率与经济韧性耦合特征及驱动因素  

Spatio-temporal Coupling Characteristics and Driving Factors of Provincial Economic Efficiency and Economic Resilience in China

作　　者：吴小妮 管卫华[1,2] 张惠 吴连霞[3] WU Xiaoni;GUAN Weihua;ZHANG Hui;WU Lianxia(School of Geography,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023;Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023;Population Research Institute,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210023 [2]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏南京210023 [3]华东师范大学人口研究所,上海200241

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2024年第2期116-125,共10页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJAZH023);国家社会科学基金青年项目(19CRK010);南京市社会科学基金项目(20ZX01)。

摘　　要：通过构建经济效率评价指标体系与经济韧性指数分析1991—2020年中国29个省域经济效率和经济韧性发展水平的时空分布特征,并利用耦合度和Tobit面板模型揭示二者的耦合特征及驱动因素。结果表明:研究期内中国省域经济效率呈波动上升态势,经济韧性指数在2008年出现极低值,其余年份在0值上下小幅波动,二者的空间格局变化显著,中高值区均为先扩大后缩小,二者的协同发展状态有所减弱;经济效率与经济韧性的耦合度始终处于拮抗时期且呈小幅下降趋势,表现为东部地区>全国>中、西部地区,东西差异特征逐渐明晰;社会经济发展水平、经济开放水平、经济结构、信息化水平、政府干预程度和劳动技能水平对经济效率和经济韧性的耦合度具有不同程度的作用效应,各因素作用方向和结果与地区经济发展所处阶段有关联,存在显著的区域差异。This paper uses 29 provincial units of China as research objects,constructs a system of indicators to measure economic efficiency and economic resilience,and uses spatial analysis methods and Tobit panel models to reveal the spatio-temporal pattern of provincial economic efficiency and economic resilience development in China from 1991 to 2020.Further,the coupling degree and Tobit panel models are used to reveal the coupling degree and driving factors of provincial economic efficiency and economic resilience development in China.The results are as follows.①During the study period,the interannual variation of China′s provincial economic efficiency showed a fluctuating upward trend,and the economic resilience index showed a very low value in 2008 and fluctuated around 0 in other years.The spatial pattern of the two changed significantly,with both the middle and high value areas experiencing an expansion followed by a reduction,and the coordinated development between the two weakened.②The coupling degree of economic efficiency and resilience has remained in an antagonistic period and has tended to decline slightly.The coupling degree in the eastern region was the highest,followed by the whole country,and the lowest in the central and western regions.The spatial differences of the coupling degree in the"east-west"direction were gradually clear.③The level of socio-economic development,economic openness,economy structure,informatization,government intervention and technical ability of labourers have different effects on the coupling degree of economic efficiency and resilience.The direction and results of each factor are related to the stage of regional economic development,and there are significant regional differences.

关 键 词：经济效率 经济韧性 耦合度 TOBIT模型 协同演化 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]