高水平开放下的中国外汇政策选择:两次美联储“放水”应对的比较研究  

Policy Choices for Chinese Exchange Rate Management under High-Level Opening-up:A Comparative Study of Responses to Two US Federal Reserve Easing Measures

作　　者：管涛 刘立品 殷高峰 Guan Tao;Liu Lipin;Yin Gaofeng(Dong Fureng Institute of Economic and Social Development,Wuhan University;BOC International(China)Co.,Ltd.;School of Economics and Management,Beihang University)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学董辅礽经济社会发展研究院 [2]中银证券 [3]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2024年第2期3-15,共13页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：上海交通大学现代金融研究基金“国际体系分化中的人民币国际化”(202211)资助。

摘　　要：为应对2008年、2020年美联储先后两次实施的极度宽松货币政策,中国外汇政策完成了从数量出清(外汇干预或者资本管制)向价格出清(汇率浮动)的转变。本文通过实证检验分析了中国外汇政策转变的内在逻辑,研究发现:2018年以来人民币汇率波动对国内物价和金融稳定的影响大幅减小,汇率弹性增加不会威胁国内物价稳定和金融稳定,亦不会掣肘国内货币政策,这正是中国外汇政策应对手段转变的底气所在。为巩固上述成果,要稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化,加强经济金融指标监测,同时继续深化汇率市场化改革,统筹发展与安全,为推进高水平对外开放提供重要体制保障。Following the 2008 global financial crisis and the early 2020 global pandemic,the Federal Reserve implemented extremely expansive monetary policies,succeeded by contractionary phases,causing significant global economic spillover effects.Concurrently,China shifted from quantitative interventions like foreign exchange reserve actions or capital controls to qualitative measures focusing on exchange rate management policy.This paper conducts a qualitative analysis to compare the divergences in China's responses to foreign exchange management policies on two occasions,scrutinizing both the adopted measures and the policy effects.To articulate the rationale behind China's transformation in exchange management policy,this paper starts with an exploration of the dynamic effects of the RMB exchange rate on price stability.This is achieved through a systematic Generalized Method of Moments(GMM) model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve and a rolling regression technique.Subsequently,the paper delves into the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and financial stability,formulating a China Foreign Exchange Market Pressure Index.Empirical results reveal a significantly negative transmission coefficient of the RMB exchange rate index to China's import prices,with a marginal and statistically insignificant impact on domestic price levels.This paper identified a noteworthy attenuation in the transmission effect on import prices,attributed to the improvements in China's trade openness and the facilitation of RMB internationalization within the current account.Before 2018,observable regularities existed in cross-border capital flows,the foreign exchange loan-to-deposit ratio,market buy-sell exchange intentions,RMB exchange rate expectations,and market panic index alongside the Foreign Exchange Market Pressure Index.These indicators lacked regular patterns after 2018.Furthermore,the increased elasticity of the RMB exchange rate is determined not to threaten domestic price stability,financial stability,or impede domestic

关 键 词：高水平开放 外汇政策 物价稳定 金融稳定 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]