“去美元化”背景下的人民币贸易计价研究——基于双边货币互换协议视角  

RMB Trade Pricing in the Context of"De-Dollarization"--Based on Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements

作　　者：黄晓薇[1] 张卓识 卞洋 Huang Xiaowei;Zhang Zhuoshi;Bian Yang(China School of Banking and Finance,University of International Business and Economics)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学中国金融学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2024年第1期15-26,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“‘安全资产短缺’与金融脆弱性形成:基于行为资产组合理论”(72073026);教育部人文社科基金一般规划项目“安全资产供需失衡视角下系统性金融风险的生成机理、识别与防控研究”(20YJA790031);对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院课题“美国对俄罗斯金融制裁影响评估及对我国的借鉴”(2022GK09)资助。

摘　　要：在美联储持续加息以及美欧对俄频繁金融制裁的背景下,各经济体加速“去美元化”,这为发展人民币贸易计价功能带来机遇。本文在允许第三方货币计价的条件下构建了基于厂商利润最大化的计价货币选择模型,分析表明:双边货币互换协议有助于增强人民币的贸易计价功能,其作用机制包括稳定人民币汇率和增强境外人民币信心两个方面。本文使用2005—2021年UNComtrade数据库构建了国家间贸易价格数据集,测算人民币的贸易计价功能。研究发现:双边货币互换协议对人民币的贸易计价功能有显著增强作用,剔除美元影响后该作用依然存在。机制检验结果表明,双边货币互换协议从稳定人民币对签署国货币汇率和增强境外人民币信心两个方面推进人民币的贸易计价功能。本文研究对“去美元化”背景下稳步发展人民币贸易计价功能具有重要的政策参考价值。Against the background of continuing interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and increasingly frequent financial sanctions,the rest of the world have reduced their reliance on dollar invoicing in trade and financial activities through international monetary cooperation and other means.The rise of the"de-dollarization"trend has brought opportunities for the development of RMB's trade prcing function.This paper constructs an invoicing currency selection model based on the manufacturer's profit maximization,allowing third-party currency pricing.The findings indicate that price stability is an important factor in determining prcing currency.The analysis shows that the bilateral currency swap agreement is helpful to strengthen the function of RMB trade valuation,and its mechanism includes stabilizing RMB exchange rate and improving the confidence of RMB abroad.Using the UNComtrade data from 2005 to 2021,the paper constructs the inter-country trade price dataset to estimate the trade prcing function of RMB.It is found that the bilateral currency swap significantly enhances the trade invoicing function of RMB,and this effect still exists after considering the influence of US dollar.The mechanism test results show that bilateral currency swap agreements enhance the function of RMB trade prcing by stabilizing the exchange rate of RMB against the currencies of the signatory countries and enhancing the confidence of RMB internationally.Further analysis in this paper shows that a higher bilateral swap line and a higher level of currency internationalization among signatory countries willimprove the effect of bilateral currency swap agreement on RMB trade prcing function.The conclusion of this paper has important policy implications for the steady development of RMB trade prcing function against the background of"de-dollarization".Firstly,continue to steadily promote the signing of bilateral currency swap agreements between and among central banks.Secondly,increase the output of RMB denominated commodities and build a RMB

关 键 词：贸易计价功能 双边货币互换协议 “去美元化” 人民币汇率 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学] F740