基于多灾害的城市韧性评估及应用研究  

Multi-hazard Resilience Assessment and Application Study

作　　者：胡雨晨[1,2] 张梦琳 毛义华 张若雪[3] HU Yuchen;ZHANG Menglin;MAO Yihua;ZHANG Ruoxue

机构地区：[1]浙江大学平衡建筑研究中心,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江大学建筑设计研究院有限公司,浙江杭州310013 [3]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058 [4]浙江大学滨海产业技术研究院,天津300301

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2024年第2期35-43,共9页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：浙江大学平衡建筑研究中心立项项目“韧性背景下城市经济系统多灾害损失评估及全方位应急体系构建”(K-20212796)。

摘　　要：试图将韧性理论在多种灾害情境下进行拓展应用,并提出一种新的城市韧性评估方法。与传统的线性组合不同,将韧性按损失和恢复速率进行区分,并基于工程韧性理论模型,构建了城市韧性的评估体系和详细流程。通过对广东省21个地级市的评估结果显示:省内各个城市的韧性存在明显差异,这尤其体现于洪水和风灾中;在空间上以粤中地区珠三角核心城市群为高韧性集聚点,向东、西和北部呈现大幅下降;根据其自身风险高低灵活选择进行多灾害韧性评估,相比于无差别在各类灾害下的评估结果,差异较为明显。根据研究结果,为广东省各市的韧性提升提出了针对性的建议。The resilience theory has been expanded and applied to multi-hazards scenarios,leading to the proposal of a new urban resilience assessment method.Differing from traditional linear combinations,resilience is categorized based on loss and recovery rates.Drawing on engineering resilience theory models,a comprehensive urban resilience assessment system and detailed procedures have been developed.Evaluation of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province reveals significant differences in resilience among cities,particularly evident in flood and wind disasters.Spatially,the Pearl River Delta core cities in the central Guangdong region emerge as high-resilience clusters,while substantial decreases are observed in the eastern,western,and northern regions.Selective multi-hazard assessments,based on their inherent risk levels,demonstrate more pronounced differences compared to undifferentiated resilience assessment results across various types of disasters.Based on the research findings,targeted recommendations for enhancing resilience in each city of Guangdong Province are proposed.

关 键 词：多灾害 城市韧性 工程韧性 韧性评估 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]