基于货客运综合指数的中国口岸发展格局及其演变  

The development pattern and evolution of China's ports based on the composite index of freights,passengers,and transport

作　　者：宋周莺[1,2] 管靖 刘卫东 SONG Zhouying;GUAN Jing;LIU Weidong(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理研究》2024年第3期658-678,共21页Geographical Research

基　　金：中国科学院海外科教合作中心部署项目(162GJHZ2022004MI)。

摘　　要：作为中国对外开放的重要平台,口岸在推进“一带一路”建设中发挥日趋重要的作用。为了揭示中国口岸发展格局,本文构建了基于进出口货运量、出入境人员和运输工具的综合指数,并从存量和增量两个视角分析刻画2011—2020年中国口岸体系的发展格局及其演变。结果表明:(1)全国口岸数量逐渐丰富、体系日益完善,进出口货运量整体呈上升趋势,出入境人员和运输工具规模则于2020年发生较大降幅。(2)从存量视角看,货客运综合指数以2017年为节点呈波动上升态势。其中,东部口岸处于高质量发展转型期,西部口岸具有强劲后发优势,而东北和中部口岸存在不平衡、不充分的问题;从发展模式上,东北口岸整体呈新兴特征,东部地区口岸发展较成熟,中部面临双重困境,西部则具有叠加优势。(3)从增量视角看,海运口岸的整体实际增量最大,内河口岸拥有整体最强的增速竞争力,空运口岸的增长主要依靠基期规模优势,而铁路和公路口岸在实际增量和增速上均不占优势。基于动态SSA模型发现,依靠基期规模驱动的数量型发展模式在近年遇到较大阻碍;海运口岸的动态增速劣势逐渐缩小并向好发展,但其余类型口岸尚未形成以增速驱动为代表的发展模式。As one of the key platforms for China's opening up,ports play an increasingly important role in promoting the construction of the Belt and Road.In order to reveal the development pattern of Chinese ports,this paper constructs a composite index using the data on the import and export of freight volume,entry and exit of passenger volume,and inbound and outbound transport volume at ports from 2011 to 2020.Based on the composite index,the evolution of ports′ development pattern is further depicted and analyzed from the perspective of stock and increment.The results show that:(1) The number of ports is gradually increased,promoting the port system to be increasingly improved.The volume of freight imported and exported through the ports is on the rise as a whole,while the scale of the entry-exit person and transport declined significantly in 2020.(2) From the perspective of stock,the composite index shows a fluctuating rise with 2017 as the breakpoint.Among them,the eastern port system is in a transitional period of high-quality development,while the western port system has a strong latecomer′ s advantage.However,there are still imbalanced and insufficient development challenges at the northeast and central port systems.In terms of the development model,the northeast ports show the emerging characteristics of high growth rate and low scale share as a whole;the eastern ports are relatively mature with low growth rate and high scale share;the central ports face the dual dilemma,while the western ports have the superimposed advantages of high growth rate and large scale share.(3) From the perspective of increment,it is found that seaports exhibit the largest G increment overall,and river ports have the strongest overall growth competitiveness.According to the traditional SSA model for the entire period,the growth of airports mainly relies on the scale advantage of the base period share,while railway and highway ports are at a disadvantage in terms of both actual increment and growth competitiveness.Based on the phased

关 键 词：全国口岸体系 口岸综合指数 格局演变 CRITIC赋权法 偏离份额分析 

分 类 号：F752.5[经济管理—国际贸易]