百年变局纵深演进下东北亚局势回顾与展望  

Review and Prospect of the Situation in Northeast Asia under the Profound Evolution of Century-old Changes

作　　者：张蕴岭 杨伯江[4] 项昊宇[5] ZHANG Yunling;YANG Bojiang;XIANG Haoyu

机构地区：[1]山东大学 [2]国际问题研究院 [3]中国社会科学院学部,济南250100 [4]中国社会科学院日本研究所,北京100007 [5]中国国际问题研究院亚太研究所,北京100005

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2024年第2期1-13,143,共14页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

摘　　要：乌克兰危机、巴以冲突、朝鲜半岛紧张局势升级,这些不安定因素不仅对地区安全造成破坏,更给世界和平带来冲击。随着美国在全球范围内对中国战略遏制加剧,零和博弈、“脱钩断链”、阵营对抗成为当前国际形势乱象频出的根源所在。作为曾经冷战前沿,东北亚地区受历史因素、冷战遗存、域外势力干扰的影响,地缘政治风云变幻,安全局势动荡不安。2024年,一些对世界安全格局具有重要影响的国家和地区迎来领导人选举和变更,更使得东北亚形势波诡云谲,难以捉摸。面对百年未有之大变局,准确把握东北亚地区复杂形势,科学预测发展前景,深入探索我国因应之道,皆为学界研究的重点和难点。百年变局纵深演进下东北亚局势回顾与展望,可以从地区秩序重构、风险表征、安全困境破解等研究角度加以阐述。The Ukraine crisis,Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the escalating tensions on the Ko⁃rean Peninsula are destabilizing factors that not only undermine regional security but also impact world peace.As the United States has intensified its strategic contain⁃ment of China on a global scale,the“zero-sum game”,“decoupling and chain break⁃ing”and“camp confrontation”have become the root causes of the current internation⁃al situation.As the former front of the Cold War,Northeast Asia has been affected by historical factors,Cold War remnants and interference from outside the region.The geopolitical situation has changed and the security situation is unstable.In 2024,some countries and regions that have an important impact on the world security pat⁃tern will have political elections or changes of leadership,which will make the situa⁃tion in Northeast Asia unpredictable.In the face of great changes unseen in a centu⁃ry,it is important and difficult to accurately grasp the complex situation in Northeast Asia,and scientifically predict the development prospect,and deeply exploring the countermeasures in China.Thus,our journal invites Prof.Zhang Yunling,Dean of the Institute of International Studies of Shandong University,Prof.Yang Bojiang,Director of the Institute of Japa⁃nese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,and Dr.Xiang Haoyu,Re⁃searcher of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies,China Institute of International Stud⁃ies to contribute their insights from their own research perspectives.

关 键 词：东北亚局势 地区秩序 地缘政治 安全风险 安全困境 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] D831[政治法律—政治学]