国际变局下日本经济形势分析与展望  

Analyses and Outlook of Japan’s Economy under Current International Cir⁃cumstances

作　　者：李清如[1] LI Qingru

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院日本研究所,北京100007

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2024年第2期66-83,147,共19页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

摘　　要：在复杂多变的国际政治经济局势下,2023年日本经济有某些起色,也暴露出一定问题和隐患。其表现为大企业盈利和海外投资收益增长,入境旅游消费逐渐恢复,国家经济项目收支顺差扩大,股市与房地产市场回暖;但消费与投资动力不足,难以支撑经济稳定复苏。2023年第三、四季度实际GDP增长率连续陷入负增长,物价持续上涨趋势,居民收入增加速度低于物价上涨速度,实际工资水平连续下降。中国继续保持日本第一大贸易伙伴的地位,是日本重要的投资对象和区域经济合作伙伴。中日经贸关系受到日本强化经济安全及对华出口管制的负面影响。中日有必要在双边及区域层面进一步拓展合作空间,创造可持续发展的良好环境,共同维护区域供应链稳定。In the changing international political and economic situation,Japanese economy has shown some highlights,but also exposed some problems and hidden dangers.Despite the turbulent geopolitical situation and the increasing downward pressure on the glob⁃al economy,Japan’s macro economy still shows a trend of recovery,with stable profit growth for large enterprises,improved employment environment,continuous increase in overseas investment returns,gradual recovery of inbound tourism consumption,significant expansion of the country’s current account surplus,and significant recov⁃ery in the stock and real estate markets.However,at the same time,Japan’s domes⁃tic consumption and investment momentum is insufficient and difficult to support sta⁃ble economic recovery.In the third and fourth quarters of 2023,the real GDP growth rate fell into negative for two consecutive quarters,and CPI continued to rise.The growth rate of household income was lower than that of prices,and the real average wages continued to decline.Due to the un-optimistic economic performance in the third and fourth quarters of 2023,which was significantly lower than market expecta⁃tions,the adjustment of Japan’s monetary policy normalization may be delayed.Af⁃fected by Japanese Yen depreciation,Japan’s nominal GDP converted to dollars in 2023 was lower than Germany’s,falling to fourth place in the world economic rank⁃ing.China continues to maintain the largest trading partner of Japan and is an impor⁃tant investment market and regional economic cooperation partner of Japan.Howev⁃er,the economic and trade relations between China and Japan have been negatively affected by Japan’s strengthened economic security policy and export restriction measures.It is necessary for China and Japan to further expand cooperation space at the bilateral and regional levels,create a favorable environment for sustainable devel⁃opment,and jointly maintain regional supply chain stability.

关 键 词：日本经济 物价上涨 经济政策 对外贸易 中日经贸关系 

分 类 号：F131.3[经济管理—世界经济]