低碳背景下电动货车对区域碳排放影响的系统动力学建模与分析  

System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis of Regional Carbon Emission by Electric Freight Vehicles Development under Low Carbon Background

作　　者：汪和平[1] 高瑞 WANG Heping;GAO Rui(School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Ma'anshan,Anhui 243002,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243002

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2024年第1期52-61,共10页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71872002);安徽省高校人文社科重大项目(SK2021ZD0035)。

摘　　要：当前环境污染与能源短缺问题日益凸显,电动货车作为交通运输行业中碳排放占比超过60%的道路货运方式,以低排放、低消耗等优势成为我国实现“双碳”目标的有效途径之一。本文针对当前电动货车推广存在争议、进程缓慢等问题,分析了电动货车发展规模对区域碳排放的影响。基于系统动力学原理构建了包含社会经济、电动货车发展规模与碳排放三个子系统的系统动力学模型。利用Vensim PLE软件模拟仿真,对比了不同场景下电动货车发展对碳减排的影响。结果表明,技术发展因素相对于购车补贴等政策更能增强电动货车的吸引力。At present,the problems of environmental pollution and energy resources have become increasingly prominent.As road freight in the transportation industry accounts for more than 60% of carbon emissions,electric vehicles have become one of the effective ways to solve the problems of environmental pollution and energy shortage due to their low emission and low consumption.In view of the current problems such as disputes and slow progress in the promotion of electric freight vehicles,the impact of the development scale of electric freight vehicles on regional carbon emissions was discussed.Based on the principle of system dynamics,a system dynamics model including three subsystems of social economy,electric freight vehicles development scale and carbon emission was constructed.The Vensim PLE software was used to simulate and analyze the impact of the development of electric vehicles on carbon emissions reduction in different scenarios.The results show that technological development factors can enhance the attractiveness of electric freight vehicles more than policies such as car purchase subsidies.

关 键 词：电动货车 “双碳”目标 碳排放 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F570.81[经济管理—产业经济]