地方政府债务与企业投资“脱实向虚”  

The Local Government Debt and Corporate Investment“from Real to Virtual”

作　　者：昌忠泽[1] 李汉雄 毛培 CHANG Zhongze;LI Hanxiong;MAO Pei(Institute of Finance and Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Management,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology;Department of Macroeconomics,Research Center,General Administration of Customs)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财经研究院、北京财经研究基地,100081 [2]西安建筑科技大学管理学院 [3]海关总署研究中心宏观经济部

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2024年第2期65-80,共16页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色社会主义政治经济学体系中的国家理论研究”(19ZDA057);中央财经大学2023年度一流学科建设项目“财政政策和货币政策协调配合研究”;陕西省教育厅科学研究计划项目(20JT035)的资助。

摘　　要：如何理解地方政府债务在国民经济发展中的影响作用是当前学术界与政府部门关注的焦点议题。本文采用2009—2018年中国上市公司数据,基于融资结构视角实证考察了地方政府债务对企业投资的影响效应和作用机制。研究发现:第一,地方政府债务扩张导致了非国有上市公司实体投资下降和金融投资上升,而对国有上市公司投资没有显著影响;第二,这一影响具有明显的地区、行业和企业个体异质性;第三,在地方政府债务攀升下非国有上市公司的融资结构变化,是导致企业投资“脱实向虚”的潜在影响机制;第四,从发展角度来看,金融投资收益率会随着地方政府债务增加而下降,因此长期持续增加金融投资不利于企业经营发展和国民经济运行,而政府债务资金投向基建民生领域能够缓解实体投资下滑。最后,根据研究结论,本文提出了具有针对性的政策建议。How to understand the impact of local government debt in the development of the national economy is the focus of current academic and government departments.This paper uses the Chinese listed companies'data and prefecture level cities local government debt data from 2009 to 2018,and empirically examines the impact and mechanism of local government debt on corporate entity investment and financial investment from the perspective of financing structure.We draw the following conclusions.First,the expansion of local government debt lead to a decline in non-state listed companies'entity investment and a rise in financial investment.While there was no significant impact on the investment of state-owned listed company.This means that with the expansion of the scale of local government debt,the investment of non-state-owned listed companies has shown a trend of“deviate from real tovirtual”.Second,that the impact of local government debt expansion on corporate investment has obvious regional,industry and individual heterogeneity.At the regional level,the increase of local government debt has a greater impact on promoting the enterprise financial investment in the eastern region,and has a more obvious inhibitory effect on the entity investment in the central and western regions.At the industry level,the increase in local government debt will lead to an increase in the financial investment of non-state-owned enterprises in infrastructure construction related industries,while the entity investment of non-state-owned enterprises in other industries will decline.At the individual level,the preferential tax policies will lead to a higher increase in financial investment of non-state-owned enterprises,while the enterprises entity investment that do not enjoy the preferential tax policies will decline more.Third,the rise in local government debt has led to changes in the financing structure of nonstate-owned listed companies,while the financing structure of state-owned enterprises has changed little.It is verified that the ch

关 键 词：地方政府债务 投资 金融化 融资结构 

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