结构性需求冲击、政策独立性与财政货币政策协调机制研究  

Structural Demand Shock,Policy Independence,and Monetary-Fiscal Policy Coordination

作　　者：张成思[1,2] 田涵晖 王晨曦 ZHANG Chengsi;TIAN Hanhui;WANG Chenxi(School of Finance,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [2]中国财政金融政策研究中心,100872

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2024年第2期117-132,共16页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(20&ZD104)的资助。

摘　　要：结构性需求冲击非对称地影响不同生产部门产品需求。本文研究此类负向冲击下,财政货币政策如何实施及配合才能实现“稳就业、促消费”目标。本文建立了区分直接和未直接受冲击部门的DSGE模型,考察财政货币政策工具及政策协调机制的有效性。结果表明:政府消费和对企业补贴适用于稳定就业;对家庭转移支付和降低个人所得税适用于促进消费;利率工具比法定存准率工具更有效。保持货币政策独立性有利于财政货币政策组合发挥作用。From 2020 to 2022,China's macroeconomy was significantly impacted by exogenous shocks.The differences in output between contact-intensive and non-contact-intensive production sectors subtly revealed the asymmetric nature of the impact of exogenous shocks on different production sectors during this period.This paper defines sectoral structural shocks as exogenous fluctuations affecting only a portion of production sectors in the economy.The negative impact on China's macroeconomy during the mentioned period includes structural demand shocks to contact-intensive sectors.The effective use of macroeconomic policies to address these challenges is a matter of concern for academia and policy authorities.The paper establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model with heterogeneity in household and production sectors.We investigate how fiscal and monetary policies should be implemented and coordinated to effectively achieve the policy goals of“stabilizing employment and promoting consumption”under sectoral structural demand shocks.We identifies the negative sequences of structural demand shocks experienced by contact-intensive sectors during the mentioned period and subsequently utilize the model to analyze the effectiveness of different fiscal and monetary policy tools and coordination mechanisms.We find that the emphasis of different policy tools varies:government consumption and enterprise subsidy policies are more effective in stabilizing employment,while transfer payments to households and personal income tax rate policies are more effective in promoting consumption.Lowering policy rate can promote employment and consumption,while required reserve ratio is not an effective policy tool.The paper also examines the“monetary independence”and“non-monetary independence”fiscal-monetary policy coordination mechanisms.Results show that the“monetary independence”mechanism,where fiscal and monetary policy do not depend on each other,is more efficient in reducing real interest rates compared to the

关 键 词：结构性需求冲击 财政货币政策协调 货币政策独立性 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F812.0