转移支付与消失的软预算约束:来自1998年大洪水的证据  

Transfer Payments and Disappearing Soft Budget Constraints:Evidence from the Great Flood of 1998

作　　者：何代欣[1,2] 刘诗阳 He Daixin;Liu Shiyang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京市102488

出　　处：《世界经济》2024年第2期126-151,共26页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目《统筹发展与安全的中国财政空间测度:模型特征、动态平衡与优化策略》(72373159)的资助。

摘　　要：量化分析中央与地方财政关系对理解中国政府间行为特征有重要意义。作为体现中央与地方财政关系关键内容的转移支付,是否起到了稳定地方财政运行作用?本文利用1998年大洪水的历史事件,观测县级政府在上级转移支付增加后的反应。研究发现,相较于未受灾地区,受灾地区的县级政府得到的中央专项补助大幅增加。得到补助资金后,地方政府表现出有限的财政扩张,并且增支部分主要用于抗洪救灾。另外,本文发现地方政府更加重视在救济抚恤上的投入,中央政府则更多承担了恢复重建的责任;中央专项补助更多地流向了受灾地级市所辖的县级区。研究结论说明在应急管理中,足额及时的中央转移支付对地方政府救灾具有保障和支撑作用。Quantitative analysis of the central-local fiscal relationship is important for understanding the characteristics of China’s intergovernmental behavior.Do transfers,which are key components of the central-local fiscal relationship,play a role in stabilizing local fiscal operations?This paper utilizes the historical event of the 1998 torrential flood to observe the response of county-level governments to the increase in transfer payments from higher levels.It is found that county-level governments in the flood-affected areas received a substantial increase in the centralized special subsidies compared to those in the non-affected areas.After receiving the subsidies,local governments carried out limited fiscal expansion,and the increase in expenditure was mainly used for flood relief.In addition,this paper finds that local governments paid more attention to investing in relief and compassionate care,while the central government took more responsibility for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction;the central government’s special subsidies flowed more to the county-level districts under the affected cities.The conclusion suggests that in the emergency management,adequate and timely central transfer payments make a safeguarding and supporting contribution to local governments in disaster relief.

关 键 词：专项补助 转移支付 软预算约束 应急管理 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]