粮食主产区政策、农业生态效率与种粮积极性——基于双重差分模型的实证检验  

Policy of Major Grain-Producing Areas, Agricultural Ecological Efficiency, and Grain Production Enthusiasm: Empirical Test Based on Difference-in-Difference model

作　　者：郭力[1] 李欣烨 李春明[1] GUO Li;LI Xin-ye;LI Chun-ming(School of Economics and Trade,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学经济贸易学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2024年第2期424-435,共12页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：河南省高等学校哲学社会科学应用研究重大项目(2022-YYZD-05),河南省高校人文社会科学研究项目(2024-ZZJH-144),河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新人才项目(2019-cx-019)。

摘　　要：粮食主产区政策的主要目的是调动农民种粮积极性、保障国家粮食安全,但在新形势下应进一步强调激励发展绿色生态农业,以满足消费端的高品质要求。以2004年国家设立13个粮食主产区作为研究区域,运用双重差分模型、中介效应模型评估主产区一揽子奖补政策对农民种粮积极性的影响效果和作用机理,实证发现:主产区政策有效刺激了农民种粮积极性,且具有动态累积递增效应;虽然能提高谷物种植积极性,但无法显著影响豆类、薯类种植行为;农户获取更多务工收入和福利性收入会降低政策效果。虽然证实了发展绿色生态农业能够通过种粮收入进而调动农民种粮积极性,但是主产区政策不能显著提高农业生态效率,因此政策的中介传导过程被阻断。据此提出保持粮食主产区政策的长期稳定性,注意农民收入分化和职业分化,精准补贴新型职业农民和种粮大户,调整主产区奖补差异化补贴普通粮和绿色优质粮以更多鼓励农户生产高品质农产品,突出政策的农户增收目标导向,将针对种粮农户的直接奖补作为主产区政策重点。Though the major grain-producing areas policy was introduced to motivate farmers’enthusiasm for grain production and ensure national food security,we should further emphasize the development of green and ecological agriculture to meet the consumers’requirements for high-quality products under the new situation.Based on a research region carried out in the 13 major grain-producing areas established by the government,we performed double difference model and mediation effect model to evaluate the comprehensive incentive policy’s impacts on farmers’enthusiasm for grain production and explored its inner mechanism.We found that the policy had stimulated farmers’enthusiasm for grain production with a dynamic cumulative effect.The policy could enhance farmers’willingness to grow cereal but had no significant influence on the cultivation of legumes and potatoes.Additionally,the increase of non-agricultural income and welfare income would reduce the impacts of the policy.In spite of the above results,the major grain-producing areas policy could not improve the agricultural ecological efficiency significantly,and hence impeded the intermediary transmission process of the policy.To cope with this dilemma,it was proposed to guarantee the long-term stability of the major grain-producing areas policy,to be aware of the income and occupation differentiation of famers,to provide precise subsidies to large grain-producing farmers and the professional farmers who cultivated with the new type.It was also proposed to adjust the subsidies differentiation between ordinary and green high-quality grain to encourage farmers to produce high-quality agricultural products,to highlight the goal of increasing farmers'income,and to consider the direct subsidies for grain-producing farmers as the focus of the policy.

关 键 词：粮食主产区政策 种粮积极性 农业生态效率 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学]