飞机积冰过程的诊断分析及强度预报建模  

Diagnostic Analysis and Intensity Prediction Modelingof Aircraft Icing Process

作　　者：卞双双 安豪 宿兴涛 黄莹莹 Bian Shuangshuang;An Hao;Su Xingtao;Huang Yingying(State Key Laboratory of Geo-Information Engineering,Xi'an 710054,China;Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]地理信息工程国家重点实验室,陕西西安710054 [2]北京应用气象研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2023年第4期304-311,共8页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：地理信息工程国家重点实验室自主研究课题(编号:SKLGIE2022-ZZ-04).

摘　　要：利用NCEP再分析数据和观测数据,对2000年6月6日甘肃省人工增雨作业时的一次飞机积冰过程进行诊断分析,利用WRF模式对72个飞机积冰实例的天气过程进行了数值模拟,在此基础上结合飞机飞行速度建立了积冰强度预报模型,通过统计分析和拟合得到预报模型的参数,并利用飞机实测报告对该模型的预报效果进行了回报检验。结果表明,该模型对飞机积冰强度的预报准确率为69.44%,强度预报结果偏弱占比25%,偏强占比5.56%。Based on the NCEP reanalysis data and observed data,the diagnostic analysis of an aircraft icing process was conducted for the artificial rain enhancement operations in Gansu Province on June 6,2000.The weather processes of 72 aircraft icing was simulated by WRF model.On this basis,a prediction model for icing intensity in the Gansu region was established by combining aircraft flight speed.The parameter of the prediction model was obtained by statistical analysis and fitting,and the prediction effect of the model was examined by the actual measurement report of aircraft icing.The results indicated that the accuracy of this model in predicting icing intensity was 69.44%,with the predictions of weaker intensity accounting for 25% and stronger intensity accounting for 5.56%.

关 键 词：飞机积冰 数值模拟 预报模型 诊断分析 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]