数据驱动下的传染病大流行期间大城市交通运行状况研究  

Analysis of traffic conditions in big cities during the pandemic:a data-driven approach

作　　者：曾恬 罗斯达 邵春福 ZENG Tian;LUO Sida;SHAO Chunfu(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport of Ministry of Transport,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830049,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室,北京100044 [3]新疆大学交通运输工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830049

出　　处：《现代交通与冶金材料》2024年第2期33-42,共10页Modern Transportation and Metallurgical Materials

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2021RC273);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72101017)。

摘　　要：新型冠状病毒肺炎是近百年来人类遭遇的影响范围最广的全球性大流行病,探究新冠疫情期间不同城市交通运行状况的演变规律,对当前传染病大流行情境下的交通运行至关重要,并对未来类似情形下的城市交通治理具有借鉴作用。城市交通运行状况可由交通健康指数、拥堵延时指数等数据来表征,因此本文收集疫情放开后十个大城市近一个月的拥堵延时指数、平均车速和交通健康指数等数据,通过相关性分析、线性回归、k-means聚类分析等方法,从多个角度探究城市交通健康指数与拥堵延时指数或平均车速之间的关系,据此采用拥堵延时指数来研究各城市交通运行状况。进而基于拥堵延时指数将研究时段划分为疫情影响期、疫情稳定期、复工复产期、春节影响期这四个阶段。并在早晚高峰、疫情、春节以及跨年夜等多种情境下,从工作日和节假日多方面挖掘各城市在疫情放开影响下交通状况变化的异同点。结果表明,在疫情放开和春节假期等多种复杂因素的影响下,交通健康指数仍能由拥堵延时指数或平均车速线性表征,交通健康指数存在一定程度的冗余,用拥堵延时指数等更易获取的数据就能够描述城市的交通运行状况。此外,疫情消退过程中,工作日早晚高峰出行的不均衡性较小,而节假日早晚高峰出行的不均衡性较大,达到40%。COVID-19 is a global pandemic with the broadest impact on human experience in the past 100 years.Exploring the changes of traffic operation in different cities during the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial for traffic operation under the current epidemic situation,which can provide reference for ur⁃ban traffic management under similar situations in the future.Urban traffic operation can be characterized by traffic health index,congestion delay index and other data.Hence,this paper collects the data of traffic delay index,average speed and traffic health index of ten major cities for nearly a month in the post COVID-19 period.Through correlation analysis,linear regression,k-means clustering analysis and other methods,this paper explores the relationship between traffic health index and congestion de⁃lay index or average speed from multiple perspectives.Based on the congestion delay index,the study period is divided into four stages:the epidemic impact period,the epidemic stability period,the re⁃sumption of work and production period,and the Spring Festival impact period.The differences and similarities of traffic conditions in different cities are explored in different situations such as rush hour,the epidemic and the Spring Festival.The results show that under the influence of epidemic and the Spring Festival,the traffic health index can still be linearly represented by the congestion delay index or the average vehicle speed,which means that the traffic health index has a certain degree of redun⁃dancy.We can use more accessible data to describe the traffic operation of the city,such as the conges⁃tion delay index.What's more,the epidemic has a great impact on the imbalance of travel in the morn⁃ing and evening peak hours during holidays.That means,in the post COVID-19 period,travel conges⁃tion in the morning and evening peak hours during holidays varies,even reaching 40%.

关 键 词：城市交通 交通运行状况 聚类分析 拥堵延时指数 后疫情时代 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]