基于地理时空加权回归分析长江经济带区域氨气排放量变化与主要影响因素  

Variation Characteristics and Main Influencing Factors of Ammonia Emissions in Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression

作　　者：孔望 吴静[1,2] KONG Wang;WU Jing(School of Surveying and Geoinformation Engineering,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;Key Laboratory of Mine Environmental Monitoring and Improving around Poyang Lake of Ministry of Natural Resources,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学测绘与空间信息工程学院,江西南昌330013 [2]东华理工大学自然资源部环鄱阳湖区域矿山环境监测与治理重点实验室,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2024年第1期138-145,共8页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“基于廉价传感器的多尺度PM2.5和O3模型优化研究”(42107113)。

摘　　要：以长江经济带为研究区域,基于地理时空加权回归模型,构建了氨气排放量变化的影响因素指标,分析了其时空演变特征,探讨了社会经济因素和自然环境因素与氨气排放量变化之间的关联。研究表明:(1)长江经济带地区的氨气排放量变化特征总体呈现“两头高、中间低”的分布格局,尤其以经济发达地区的氨气排放量变化最为显著。(2)长江流域带来的常年湿润以及温和的气候条件有利于氨气从土壤中挥发,使得自然环境带来的氨气排放量占据了相当的比重,而随着全球气温的上升,温度对氨气排放量的影响也在缓慢增强。(3)我国氨气排放依然以农业氨源为主要排放源,在农业大省如四川、湖南、江西等省份农业灌溉的氮肥施用对氨气排放量的影响依然明显,但是城镇化的扩张和社会经济的发展反映出在经济发达的地区和城市由于城市生活、生产对氨气排放的影响力也在潜移默化中增强。This article takes the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research area,analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ammonia emissions by constructing an index system of influencing factors for ammonia emissions changes based on the geographically and temporally weighted regression model,and explores the relationship between socioeconomic factors,natural environmental factors and changes in ammonia emissions.The research findings are as follows:(1)The overall distribution pattern of ammonia emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region is characterized by“high on both ends and low in the middle”,with the most significant changes in economically developed areas.(2)The perennial moisture and mild climatic conditions brought by the Yangtze River Basin facilitate the volatilization of ammonia from the soil,making natural environment become a significant contributor to ammonia emissions.With the increase of global temperature,the impact of temperature on ammonia emissions is also slowly increasing.(3)Agricultural ammonia sources remain the primary source of ammonia emissions in China.In major agricultural provinces such as Sichuan,Hunan and Jiangxi,the use of nitrogen fertilizer for agricultural irrigation has a significant impact on ammonia emissions.However,the expansion of urbanization and the enhancement of socio-economic development reflect the growing influence of urban life and production on ammonia emissions in economically developed regions and cities.

关 键 词：氨气排放 地理时空加权回归 影响因素 时空特征 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]