非对称自信水平下突发事件响应等级研判方法——基于自信度调整视角  

A Method to Judge Emergency Response Level with Expert Asymmetric Confidence Based on Confidence Adjustment Perspective

作　　者：张磊[1] 叶鑫[1] ZHANG Lei;YE Xin(School of Economics and Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2024年第2期381-390,共10页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72304059,71974025,71874020);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(DUT22RC(3)051);大连市科技创新基金资助项目(2022JJ12GX012)。

摘　　要：新形势下我国社会安全事件系统性风险凸显造成应急响应等级研判难度跃升,针对专家非对称自信水平下突发事件响应等级研判难题,建立基于信任的专家自信度调整策略,提出专家自信水平影响的应急响应等级研判方法。该方法利用专家提供的信任度和熟悉度构成二元函数描述专家间信任关系,构建基于信任机制的专家自信度调整策略,通过分析非对称自信水平中蕴含的专家研判不确定性,基于证据理论提出应急响应等级研判问题建模方法。在此基础上,综合证据的来源重要度和自身可信度,提出考虑决策者风险偏好的证据可靠度计算方法,赋予证据不同重要性以实现专家研判信息的准确融合,为突发事件应急响应等级综合研判提供决策支持。最后,利用算例验证了方法的实用性与先进性。结果表明:相比投票、权威等常用决策方法,本文所提方法适用性更广、可信性更高、实用性更强。The systemic risk of social security incidents in China has become prominent under new situations,making it more difficult to judge the emergency response level.Aiming at the problem of inconsistent judgment of emergency response level among experts,a decision-making method considering self-confidence adjustment is proposed to judge emergency response level.The trust degree and familiarity degree provided by experts are used to construct a binary function to describe the trust relationship between experts,and the adjustment mechanism of self-confidence is established.By analyzing the uncertainty of expert judgment contained in incomplete confidence,the decision problem of emergency response level is modeled based on the evidence theory.On this basis,taking into account the importance of the source of evidence and its own credibility,a method for calculating the reliability of evidence considering decision-makers’risk preferences is proposed to assign different importance to evidence.Then,the evidence discount combination method is used to fuse the judgements provided by experts.Finally,the practicality and superiority of the proposed method are verified by an example.The results show that the method proposed has a wider applicability,a higher credibility,and a stronger practicability than other common decision-making methods such as voting,and authority.

关 键 词：应急决策 专家自信度 自信度调整 突发事件响应等级 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]