基于模糊认知图的高铁企业国际声誉形成机制仿真分析  

Simulation Analysis of International Reputation Formation Mechanism for High-Speed Railway Enterprises Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map

作　　者：牛衍亮[1] 李思远 汪钏 孙博 罗岚[3] 邓小鹏[4] NIU Yanliang;LI Siyuan;WANG Chuan;SUN Bo;LUO Lan;DENG Xiaopeng(School of Management,Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang 050043,China;Equipment Technology Center,National Railway Administration,Beijing 100070,China;School of Engineering and Construction,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;School of Civil Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁道大学管理学院,石家庄050043 [2]国家铁路局装备技术中心,北京100070 [3]南昌大学工程建设学院,南昌330031 [4]东南大学土木工程学院,南京211189

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2024年第2期536-546,共11页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72071133,71771052,72171048);中国国家铁路集团科研计划项目(2020F026)。

摘　　要：为探究高铁企业国际声誉形成机制的动态演化过程,采用一种结合了结构方程模型和模糊认知图的方法进行仿真分析。预测分析结果表明:宏观因素、企业能力和被感知的能力均与国际声誉呈正相关,与国际声誉之间的相关性大小排序为宏观因素>企业能力>被感知的能力。诊断分析结果表明:宏观因素是引起国际声誉变化的最根本原因。混合分析结果证明了以宏观因素为核心采取综合干预措施,对国际声誉的提升效果最好。基于分析结果,提出了高铁企业提升国际声誉的对策。这种混合方法模拟了因素间的动态交互作用,并在不同假设情景下进行仿真分析,揭示了高铁企业国际声誉形成机制的动态演化过程。研究结果有助于拓展国际声誉形成机制的知识体系,也可为高铁企业采取针对性策略提升国际声誉提供实践参考。In order to explore the dynamic evolution process of the formation mechanism of international reputation of high-speed railway(HSR)enterprises,a method combining the structural equation model and fuzzy cognitive map was used to conduct simulation analysis.The results of prediction analysis show that macro factors,enterprise capability,and perception of capability are positively correlated with international reputation,and the order of correlation with international reputation is macro factors>enterprise capability>perception of capability.The results of diagnostic analysis show that macro factors are the most fundamental cause of international reputation.The results of hybrid analysis prove that the comprehensive intervention measures with macro factors as the core have a better effect on the improvement of international reputation.Based on the results,recommendations are proposed to improve the international reputation for HSR enterprises.This combined method simulates the dynamic interaction among these factors and performs the simulation analysis under different scenarios which reveals the dynamic evolution process of the formation mechanism.The results are helpful to expand the knowledge system of international reputation formation mechanism and provide practical reference for HSR enterprises to adopt targeted strategies to improve the international reputation.

关 键 词：仿真分析 高铁企业 国际声誉 形成机制 模糊认知图 

分 类 号：F35[经济管理—产业经济]