长三角城市群高质量发展对碳排放强度的空间溢出效应  

Spatial Spillover Effect of High-quality Development on Carbon Emission Intensity in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：陈红梅 李建豹 CHEN Hongmei;LI Jianbao(School of Public Administration,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing Jiangsu 210023,China;Government Management Research Centre,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing Jiangsu 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京财经大学政府管理研究中心,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第4期77-86,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“多尺度视角下长三角地区城镇化碳排放效应及调控策略研究”(41901245);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目“多尺度视角下城镇化对碳排放影响机理及调控策略研究——以江苏省为例”(2019SJA0254);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目“‘双碳’背景下江苏省低碳调控策略研究”(KYCX22_1739)。

摘　　要：基于2005—2020年长三角城市群41个城市的面板数据,利用熵值法和空间自相关探讨了高质量发展和碳排放强度的时空分布特征,并借助空间杜宾面板模型分析高质量发展对碳排放强度的空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)2005—2020年,长三角城市群高质量发展综合指数及各维度指数均表现为波动上升态势,且均呈明显的空间分布不均衡。(2)2005—2020年,长三角城市群碳排放强度均值呈“快速下降—缓慢下降”发展趋势,其标准差与均值变化趋势基本一致,相对差异呈波动下降趋势,且相对差异与绝对差异之间差距持续扩大,碳排放强度存在明显的正的空间自相关性,且其空间分布不均衡。(3)高质量发展对碳排放强度具有明显的空间溢出效应。创新发展是降低碳排放强度的主要驱动力;协调发展对碳排放强度具有明显的促进作用;绿色发展对本市碳排放强度具有促进作用,但不明显,对相邻市碳排放强度具有明显的抑制作用;开放发展和共享发展对碳排放强度均具有抑制作用,其中共享发展对碳排放强度的抑制作用更为明显。Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2020,this paper discussed the time-space distribution characteristics of high-quality development and carbon emission intensity using entropy method and spatial autocorrelation,and analyzed the spatial spillover effect of high-quality development on carbon emission intensity with the help of spatial Dubin panel model.The research findings are as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2020,the comprehensive index of high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the index of all dimensions showed a rising trend of fluctuation,and showed an obvious imbalance in spatial distribution.(2)From 2005 to 2020,the average carbon emission intensity of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration showed a development trend of"rapid decline-slow decline",The standard deviation and the average change trend were basically the same.The relative difference showed a fluctuating downward trend,and the gap between the relative difference and the absolute difference continued to expand.The carbon emission intensity had obvious positive spatial autocorrelation,and its spatial distribution was uneven.(3)High quality development has obvious spatial spillover effect on carbon emission intensity.Innovative development is the main driving force for reducing carbon emission intensity.Coordinated development can significantly promote carbon emission intensity.Green development can promote the carbon emission intensity of the city,but it is not obvious.It can significantly inhibit the carbon emission intensity of neighboring cities.Both open development and shared development have an inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity,and shared development has a more obvious inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity.

关 键 词：高质量发展 碳排放强度 熵值法 空间杜宾面板模型 长三角城市群 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F127[经济管理—世界经济]