湖泊型水库环库实时洪水预报方法研究  

Research on Real-time Flood Forecasting Model of the Basin Surrounding Lake-type Reservoir

作　　者：赵含雪 许成婧 朱非林[1] 王艺雯 钱心缘 王斌 马彪 钟平安[1] ZHAO Hanxue;XU Chengjing;ZHU Feilin;WANG Yiwen;QIAN Xinyuan;WANG Bin;MA Biao;ZHONG Ping'an(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,Jiangsu,China;Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210024 [2]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水力发电》2024年第4期14-18,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3202801);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079037);长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司自主创新项目(CX2020Z02)。

摘　　要：湖泊型水库的修建,改变了水库坝址控制流域的下垫面和河流水系结构,进而影响流域产汇流机制。针对湖泊型水库环库周边流域产汇流特点,构建了包含库面不透水产流区、环库破碎产流区的组合洪水预报模型,提出了不同分区的产汇流计算方法。以响洪甸水库为例,进行洪水模拟效果的对比分析,结果表明:组合洪水预报模型的精度显著高于整体新安江模型,确定性系数提升0.1,洪量相对误差降低5.3%,洪峰相对误差降低2.8%;组合预报模型的不透水面积,产流和汇流等相关模型参数,更为符合碎片化小流域产汇流的特性,并能较好地反映入库洪水的组成;水库水面的直接产流占有较大比重,是地表、壤中、地下径流之外的第4种径流组分。此方法可为湖泊型水库流域的实时洪水预报提供模型支撑,具备较好的应用前景。The construction of lake-type reservoirs alters the subsurface conditions and river system structure within the controlled watershed,thus impacts the runoff production and concentration mechanisms.According to the characteristics of runoff production and routing of basin surrounding lake-type reservoir,a combined flood forecasting model containing the impermeable area of reservoir surface and the disrupted runoff-producing area surrounding the reservoir is developed,and the calculation methods of runoff production and concentration in different areas are proposed.Taking the Xianghongdian Reservoir as a study case,the comparative analysis of flood simulation results are carried out.The results indicate that,(a)the accuracy of the combined flood forecasting model is significantly improved than that of the traditional Xin'anjiang Model,with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient improved by 0.1,and the relative error of flood volume and flood peak reduced by 5.3%and 2.9%,respectively;(b)the relevant parameters of the combined forecasting model,such as impervious area and coefficients related to runoff production and concentration,can better capture the characteristics of fragmented sub-basins and the composition of incoming flood hydrograph;and(c)the direct production of inflow from the reservoir surface occupies a major proportion,representing the fourth runoff component in addition to surface,interflow and subsurface flows.Overall,the proposed method can provide modelling support for real-time flood forecasting in watersheds with lake-type reservoirs and has promising potential for further application.

关 键 词：湖泊型水库 实时洪水预报 新安江模型 组合预报模型 不透水面积 

分 类 号：P338.1[天文地球—水文科学]