采用AK-MCS的燃气轮机轮盘疲劳寿命预测及可靠性评估  

Research on the Method of Low-Cycle Fatigue Life Prediction and Reliability Evaluation of Gas Turbine Discs Based on AK-MCS

作　　者：罗宇轩 李金星 赵名星 谢永慧[1] 张荻[1] LUO Yuxuan;LI Jinxing;ZHAO Mingxing;XIE Yonghui;ZHANG Di(School of Energy and Power Engineering,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院,西安710049

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报》2024年第4期107-116,共10页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家科技重大专项资助项目(J2019-Ⅳ-0022-0090);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资助项目(xtr072021002)。

摘　　要：为确保燃气轮机透平轮盘在实际工作中的性能和可靠性,综合考虑燃气轮机服役时轮盘伴随的多种不确定性因素,通过概率表征合理量化,采用主动学习克里金代理模型与蒙特卡罗模拟结合算法(AK-MCS),搭建了考虑多源混合不确定性的燃气轮机轮盘寿命预测代理模型,并对轮盘低周疲劳寿命可靠性进行了合理评估。建立了一套完整的轮盘低周疲劳寿命可靠性分析流程,完成了某型燃气轮机透平轮盘低周疲劳寿命可靠性评估及灵敏度分析。研究结果表明:轮盘的最大等效应力值为773.518 MPa,最大应变值为0.004 73,局部危险点位于轮槽第3根齿面下方的圆角处,寿命预测结果为1.177×10^(4)周。设计寿命为8×10^(3)周的条件下,得到透平轮盘的失效概率为0.043 1,可靠度为0.956 9。灵敏度分析结果表明,影响疲劳寿命最主要的参数是轮槽齿面接触压力及轮盘转速。研究结果展示了AK-MCS算法在轮盘可靠性分析中的应用优势,能为工程中轮盘的设计提供方法和参考数据。To ensure the performance and reliability of gas turbine discs in practical work,comprehensive consideration is given to various uncertainties associated with the discs during the service of gas turbines.Reasonable quantification is achieved through probability representation,employing the active learning Kriging surrogate model and Monte Carlo simulation(AK-MCS).A disc life prediction agent model is established,considering the hybrid uncertainty of the gas turbine disc.The low-cycle fatigue life of the disc is reasonably evaluated.This is followed by the development of a comprehensive disc low-cycle fatigue life reliability analysis flow as well as the completion of the disc low-cycle fatigue life reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis.The research results indicate that the maximum equivalent stress value of the disc is 773.518 MPa;the maximum strain value is 0.00473;the local danger point is located at the corner below the third tooth surface of the wheel groove;and the predicted life is 1.177×10^(4) weeks.Given a design life of 8×10^(3) weeks,the failure probability of the disc can reach 0.0431,with a reliability value of 0.9569.The sensitivity analysis results show that the main parameters affecting the fatigue life include the contact pressure of the wheel groove tooth surface and the disc speed.The research results demonstrate the application advantages of AK-MCS in the disc reliability analysis,providing methods and reference data for the design of gas turbine discs in engineering.

关 键 词：燃气轮机 轮盘 主动学习 低周疲劳寿命 不确定性量化 可靠性 

分 类 号：TK05[动力工程及工程热物理]