产业地理与美国对华贸易决策  

Industrial Geography and U.S.Trade War on China

作　　者：刘语默 Liu Yumo

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系,100084

出　　处：《国际政治研究》2024年第1期114-135,8,共23页The Journal of International Studies

摘　　要：自2018年以来,美国对华发起的贸易战引发美国国内的利益分化,部分州坚定支持对华发动代价高昂的关税战,部分强烈反对,还有一些则摇摆不定。从产业地理政治视角出发,基于贸易结构和对华依赖程度两个维度对美国对华贸易政策制定的产业政治地理进行类型化分析后发现,美国各州对华贸易偏好的有四种主要倾向:出口导向—对华贸易依赖度高的“经济接触派”、出口导向—对华贸易依赖度低的“观望派”、进口竞争—对华贸易依赖度高的“经济遏制派”及进口竞争—对华贸易依赖度低的“议题联动派”。贸易结构和对华依赖程度塑造了美国各州差异化的经济利益,所形成的地区整体对华贸易政策偏好经由选举制度投射至决策主体——总统和国会,对国会议员而言,重点关注本选区选民的诉求;对总统而言,侧重点在于摇摆州和票仓州的选民利益,二者在沟通、互动和妥协后达成“有限一致”并输出为最终的政策结果。通过对两组代表性案例即美国加利福尼亚州和得克萨斯州与密歇根州和马萨诸塞州进行比较分析,印证了美国对华贸易决策背后的产业地理逻辑。The onset of the U.S.trade war on China in 2018 has triggered divergent interests within the United States,with certain states staunchly supporting a high-stakes tariff battle against China,others vehemently opposing it,and a few remaining ambivalent.Adopting an industrial geographic perspective,a typological analysis of the industrial political geography shaping U.S.trade policy toward China can be conducted through two dimensions:trade structure and dependence on China.This analysis reveals four primary tendencies among U.S.states regarding trade preferences with China:export-oriented states with a high reliance on China,referred to as“economic engagement;”export-oriented states with low dependence on China,known as“straddle;”import competition-oriented states with high reliance on China,termed“economic containment;”and import competition-oriented states with low dependence on China,labeled“issue linkage.”A double comparison of two representative cases-California and Texas,and Michigan and Massachusetts-confirms the industrial geography logic behind U.S.trade decisions toward China.Trade structure and dependence on China shape differentiated economic interests across U.S.states,and these regional preferences in trade policy toward China are projected onto decision-making entities-the President and Congress.For congressional members,the focus is on addressing the demands of constituents in their respective districts.For the President,emphasis lies in balancing the interests of swing states and electoral states,with both entities reaching a“limited consensus”after communication,interaction,and compromise,culminating in the final policy outcome.

关 键 词：区域国别研究 美国 产业地理 中美贸易争端 美国贸易政策 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济]