基于投影寻踪模型的水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全评价  

Water-Energy-Food-Population System Security Evaluation Based on Projection Pursuit Model

作　　者：何立新[1,2] 周帅宇[1] 张峥 李志会[1] HE Lixin;ZHOU Shuaiyu;ZHANG Zheng;LI Zhihui(School of Water Resources and Hydropower,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Water Conservancy,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]河北工程大学河北省智慧水利重点实验室,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第4期73-78,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金重点支持项目(U20A20316);河北省创新研究群体项目(E2020402074)。

摘　　要：河北省作为京津冀城市圈中不可或缺的一部分,其水、能源、粮食、人口等资源安全稳定对于整个区域经济和社会的发展尤为重要。为了深入了解河北省水-能源-粮食-人口系统的安全状况,将人口因素纳入水-能源-粮食系统进行分析,构建水-能源-粮食-人口系统的安全评价指标体系,运用基于麻雀算法改进的投影寻踪模型对河北省2010—2019年水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全进行时空演变综合评价。结果表明:在研究期,河北省水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全等级逐渐升高,各市的水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全差异性降低;河北省各市水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全等级值在1.32~3.95之间,说明该系统安全处于不安全、亚安全、安全3个等级。建议河北省根据自身资源优势,合理分配资源,实现水、能源、粮食和人口的协调发展。As an indispensable part of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan circle,the security and stability of water resources,energy,food,population and other resources in Hebei Province are particularly important for the economic and social development of the whole re-gion.Therefore,in order to deeply understand the security situation among water,energy,food and population systems in Hebei Province,population factors were included in the water-energy-food system for analysis,and a security evaluation index system of water-energy-food-population system was built.The spatial-temporal evolution of water-energy-food-population system in Hebei Province during 2010-2019 was comprehensively evaluated by using the projection pursuit model improved by Sparrow algorithm.The results show that during the study peri-od,the security level of water-energy-food-population system in Hebei Province is gradually increased,and the security difference of water-energy-food-population system is decreased.The security level values of water-energy-food-population system in all cities of the province range from 1.32 to 3.95,indicating that the system has three levels of insecurity,sub-security and security.By analyzing the stability of water-ener-gy-grain-population system,it is found that Hebei Province should rationally allocate resources according to its own resources advantages to realize the coordinated development of water,energy,food and population.

关 键 词：人口因素 安全评价 水-能源-粮食 投影寻踪模型 河北省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]